FNUS73 KAPX 111728 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MACK MCKINLEY...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 128 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SYSTEM THAT PASSED EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH FULL SUN AND GOOD MIXING WITH RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE BURN SITE. GOOD RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 63. MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 15 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 15 MPH. WINDS TRYING TO BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE IN DAY. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE MAY BE TO STRONG TO OVERCOME AND JUST STAY SOUTHEAST. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 26 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 10200-10900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2900). TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........18 18 18 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............58 58 57 RH..............23 23 22 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......290028002500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....26. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 0 TO 2 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........18 18 18 18 23 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 48 38 33 30 28 RH..............24 31 52 69 75 78 20 FT WIND......NW 9 N 7 N 4 N 1 N 0 N 1 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......2000 900 200 0 0 0 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....59. MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-7200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........23 31 31 36 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............26 35 50 57 RH..............88 61 27 23 20 FT WIND......N 1 E 3G5 E 5G10 SE 6G10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 200 200 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI REQUESTED BY...EVA PONTIOUS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100411.MACKM.01/APX