FNUS75 KBOU 111744 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR NOTT CREEK UNIT 7 RX...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1131 AM MDT SUN APR 11 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AFTER OUR DISCUSSION THIS MORNING...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CLEAR WIND FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN THE LATEST FORECAST DATA. THE WINDS AT THE BURN SITE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONGER WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT WE SHOULD SEE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO HELP THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND COMPONENT AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THIS CASE. AS A RESULT...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WINDY FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP A THREAT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. WINDIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200. 12200-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1200. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43. MAX HUMIDITY........33%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....63. MIN HUMIDITY........14-17%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-11 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300... THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR NOTT CREEK UNIT 7 RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/11-11 36 0 49 22 SW 6 1 5670 W 14 84221 G 04/11-12 36 0 52 20 SW 6 6 5 1 W23 8296 W 17 125392 V 04/11-13 36 0 54 18 SW 6 1 9881 W 16 137086 V 04/11-14 36 0 56 17 S 6 1 11466 W 15 148781 V 04/11-15 36 0 57 16 S 7 7 5 1 W14 13051 W 14 160475 E 04/11-16 36 0 57 16 SW 10 1 13154 W 14 159678 E 04/11-17 36 0 57 17 SW 14 1 13256 SW 14 158880 E 04/11-18 28 0 58 17 SW 15 21 5 1 SW15 13358 SW 14 158082 E 04/11-19 28 0 56 19 SW 13 1 9456 SW 12 109107 V 04/11-20 28 0 53 22 S 8 1 5553 SW 9 60131 G 04/11-21 28 0 50 24 S 6 6 5 1 SW16 1651 S 8 11155 P 04/11-22 28 0 49 27 S 7 1 1226 S 9 8748 P 04/11-23 28 0 47 29 S 9 1 801 SW 10 6341 P 04/12-00 32 0 46 30 SW 8 12 4 1 SW20 375 SW 12 3934 P 04/12-01 32 0 45 31 SW 8 1 361 SW 13 4042 P 04/12-02 32 0 45 32 SW 8 1 346 SW 14 4149 P 04/12-03 32 0 44 32 SW 8 12 6 1 SW22 332 SW 15 4257 P 04/12-04 32 0 44 33 SW 9 1 311 SW 14 3865 P 04/12-05 32 0 43 33 SW 8 1 289 SW 14 3473 P 04/12-06 26 0 43 33 SW 8 12 5 1 S28 268 SW 13 3081 P 04/12-07 26 0 45 33 SW 7 1 392 SW 13 4456 P 04/12-08 26 0 45 33 SW 7 1 516 SW 13 5832 P 04/12-09 26 0 48 30 SE 7 10 4 1 S29 639 SW 13 7207 P 04/12-10 26 0 51 27 SE 7 1 2928 SW 18 67007 G 04/12-11 26 0 54 23 SE 7 1 5217 SW 23 126806 V 04/12-12 49 5 55 22 SE 7 7 3 1 S32 7505 SW 29 186606 E 04/12-13 49 5 57 20 SE 8 1 7965 SW 30 208796 E 04/12-14 49 5 58 18 S 8 1 8425 S 31 230985 E 04/12-15 55 5 58 17 S 9 13 3 1 S36 8885 S 32 253174 E 04/12-16 55 5 57 17 S 13 1 8474 S 33 245567 E 04/12-17 55 5 56 17 S 12 1 8062 S 35 237959 E 04/12-18 72 20 55 17 S 12 12 3 2 SW47 7651 S 35 230351 E 04/12-19 72 20 49 22 S 13 2 5162 S 29 154386 E 04/12-20 72 20 46 27 S 14 2 2673 S 22 78421 G 04/12-21 72 20 41 34 S 15 24 3 2 SW40 160 S 14 1898 P 04/12-22 72 20 38 40 S 17 2 166 S 16 2364 P 04/12-23 72 20 36 45 S 21 2 173 S 18 2830 P 04/13-00 79 30 35 49 S 24 39 3 1 S23 179 S 21 3295 P 04/13-01 79 30 34 53 S 26 1 194 S 23 3946 P 04/13-02 79 30 33 56 S 28 1 209 S 25 4598 P 04/13-03 79 30 32 58 S 28 44 3 1 S30 224 S 26 5249 P 04/13-04 79 30 32 60 S 26 1 222 S 25 4897 P 04/13-05 79 30 32 59 SW 24 1 220 SW 24 4545 P 04/13-06 70 30 32 58 SW 22 35 3 2 S40 218 SW 22 4192 P 04/13-07 70 30 33 57 SW 18 2 357 SW 22 6493 P 04/13-08 70 30 34 54 SW 16 2 496 SW 21 8793 P 04/13-09 70 30 37 49 SW 14 22 3 2 S56 635 SW 20 11093 P 04/13-10 70 30 40 43 SW 14 2 1595 SW 22 32636 P 04/13-11 70 30 43 39 SW 15 2 2555 SW 23 54179 F 04/13-12 71 30 45 36 SW 16 25 3 4 S55 3515 SW 25 75722 G 04/13-13 71 30 47 34 SW 17 4 5395 S 28 142678 V 04/13-14 71 30 48 32 SW 18 4 7274 S 31 209635 E 04/13-15 71 30 49 30 SW 20 31 3 4 S56 9153 S 35 276592 E 04/13-16 71 30 49 28 SW 23 4 10198 S 35 311060 E 04/13-17 71 30 48 27 W 26 4 11242 SW 36 345528 E 04/13-18 58 17 47 27 W 29 46 4 1 S43 12287 SW 36 379996 E 04/13-19 58 17 46 29 W 29 1 11071 SW 37 352583 E 04/13-20 58 17 44 33 W 28 1 9855 W 38 325171 E 04/13-21 58 17 41 38 W 25 40 3 1 W28 8639 W 39 297758 E 04/13-22 58 17 39 40 W 23 1 7315 W 41 257201 E 04/13-23 58 17 38 41 W 20 1 5991 W 43 216644 E 04/14-00 43 5 38 41 W 17 28 3 1 W31 4667 W 44 176087 E 04/14-01 43 5 37 42 SW 16 1 4062 W 41 149052 V 04/14-02 43 5 36 41 SW 16 1 3457 W 40 122017 V 04/14-03 43 5 36 41 S 16 25 2 1 W37 2852 W 38 94981 G 04/14-04 43 5 36 41 S 15 1 2699 W 36 85048 G 04/14-05 43 5 36 40 SE 15 1 2547 W 33 75114 G 04/14-06 18 0 36 39 SE 14 22 3 1 W35 2394 W 31 65181 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100412.NOTTC.01/BOU