FNUS73 KAPX 141301 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR EVERGREEN PINES...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 901 AM EDT WED APR 14 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0905 EDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE IGNITION SITE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE MILDER CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UNDER 30 PERCENT BY 1 PM. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS EXIT THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........60 41 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 WEATHER COV.....SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW TEMP............39 46 57 59 62 64 65 66 66 RH..............72 53 35 32 28 28 29 30 34 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 300 500 700 700 700 700 700 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....46. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........25 24 24 24 61 61 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............65 61 56 52 51 49 RH..............38 49 59 69 74 80 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 5 S 5 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 15 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79. MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........61 72 72 72 56 56 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 51 63 73 78 78 RH..............86 83 56 38 28 22 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 7 W 11 SW 13 SW 15 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 25 25 30 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100414.EVERG.02/APX