FNUS73 KDMX 141411 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK CREEK POOL B...IOWA DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 911 AM CDT WED APR 14 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE REMEMBER TO SUBMIT A MID BURN OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALLOWING FOR RH VALUES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE SE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 26 TO 32 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (175300 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........54 64 73 78 77 77 77 76 76 WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............63 66 69 71 72 73 74 74 73 RH..............60 53 48 46 44 44 43 44 46 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 10 EYE LVL WND GST.30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 2.4 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.2 MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S MIXNG WIND SPD..26 29 31 31 31 30 29 31 32 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 18 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 21 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (171400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (14200 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........78 81 84 86 86 85 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 67 64 62 60 59 RH..............49 59 67 72 75 78 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 7 SW 7 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....6100 2500 700 700 700 700 MIXNG WIND......S 32 S 18 S 9 S 13 S 21 S 25 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 22 TO 24 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (81900 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........85 80 75 57 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............57 63 68 70 RH..............83 67 59 49 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 7G15 SW 9G20 SW 10G20 SW 10G20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 2100 2900 3900 MIXNG WIND......SW 24 SW 23 SW 22 SW 24 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...BEERENDS REQUESTED BY...TODD WALROD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100414.ELKCR.01/DMX