FNUS75 KGJT 151638
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK MOUNTAIN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MDT THU APR 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST. ON FRIDAY WE WILL
BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE TO BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BURN SITE. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-8700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11300-25900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100415.ELKMO.01/GJT