FNUS75 KGJT 160033
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK MOUNTAIN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
633 PM MDT THU APR 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1730 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NOON BECAME NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EAST
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THIS EAST PUSH SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. VIRGA IS
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.

UPDATED FOR A FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 2-5 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
                    THEN SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000-8000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL NOON...INCREASING
                    SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. INCREASING TO
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING
                    TO 6000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...EXCEPT GOOD IN SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...EXCEPT 5000 FT AGL IN SHOWERS.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SHOWERS LIKELY WITH
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EXCEPT EXCELLENT IN SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL...EXCEPT HIGHER IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100415.ELKMO.02/GJT