FNUS75 KGJT 151302
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR POWDERHORN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
702 AM MDT THU APR 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
LIGHT WINDS.  SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS
INVERSION SHOULD BE BREAK IN THE LATE MORNING.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THOUGH NOTHING EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE.  FRIDAY
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER BURN SITE AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE PERFECT ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD AFTER 1PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12800 FT AGL AFTER 1PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 100 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 13 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600-11100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD (147800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN STEVENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100415.POWDE.01/GJT