FNUS75 KGJT 151440
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TOMICHI...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
840 AM MDT THU APR 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST. ON FRIDAY WE WILL
BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE TO BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE BURN SITE. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
                    (60-80% HIGH CLOUDS). DECREASING CLOUDS THIS
                    AFTERNOON (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 1100
                    ...A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800-7900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500-16100 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4900-13800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100415.TOMIC.01/GJT