FNUS73 KAPX 161352 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LYNX POND...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 952 AM EDT FRI APR 16 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...UPDATED TO LOWER RH VALUES TODAY... .DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THIS MORNING...HITTING THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR...WINDS WILL TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 33 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1900). TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 77 81 81 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 55 52 51 RH..............56 53 54 52 20 FT WIND......NW 9 NW 14 NW 15 N 16 20 FT WIND GUST.20 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......500 1200 1700 1900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 32 TO 38 MPH BECOMING NORTH 20 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........100 70 70 70 63 63 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 45 42 39 37 36 RH..............54 55 60 64 67 69 20 FT WIND......N 15 N 11 N 10 NW 7 NW 6 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.30 35 30 25 20 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......2100 2000 700 100 0 100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100416.LYNXP.01/APX