FNUS73 KAPX 161249 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH STAR...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 849 AM EDT FRI APR 16 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR AND CLOUDY SKIES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AT THE BURN SITE BY IGNITION TIME WITH READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY BY IGNITION TIME. 20 FOOT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10 TO 20 PERCENT) EARLY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) BY IGNITION. TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 53. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 16 TO 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 31 TO 33 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3700-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1900). TIME (EDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........80 81 100 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 49 48 RH..............66 61 58 20 FT WIND......NW 13 NW 15 N 16 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......1200 1600 1900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 31 TO 37 MPH DECREASING TO 17 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........100 70 70 70 63 63 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 44 42 39 37 36 RH..............58 60 62 64 67 69 20 FT WIND......N 15 N 10 N 8 NW 7 NW 6 NW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 35 30 30 35 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......2000 1800 600 100 0 100 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....48. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 16 TO 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 29 TO 38 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2100). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........63 79 79 79 79 79 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............35 35 40 45 47 47 RH..............72 72 57 43 38 40 20 FT WIND......NW 7 NW 8 NW 12 NW 15 NW 16 N 16 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 25 35 35 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 1500 1700 1900 2100 2000 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100416.NORTH.01/APX