FNUS75 KGJT 161434
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TOMICHI...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
834 AM MDT FRI APR 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0755 MDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
EAST. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO
THE EAST OF THE BURN SITE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH
WILL ENHANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT THE BURN SITE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11500-31100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (20400-37200 KNOT-FT) AFTER 2200.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100416.TOMIC.01/GJT