FNUS75 KRIW 161156
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH FORK 2...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
556 AM MDT FRI APR 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TODAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST...THE
ELK FORK DRAINAGE ORIENTATION SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SHOULD RESULT
IN MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS TODAY. RIDGE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PLENTY OF SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL
EXPECTED. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW SATURDAY MORNING NEAR
RIDGE TOP...BUT WILL BE ALL RAIN AT THE VALLEY FLOOR.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIM. ALSO...ON
SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...BUT REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW 15 MPH. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 VALLEY FLOOR TO AROUND 50 AT 8800 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT ALL ELEVATIONS.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH
LAL.................1.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR (54000 KNOT-FT) BY
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 VALLEY FLOOR. 35-40 RIDGE.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO
                    THE WEST SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (5000 KNOT-FT) BY 2100.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-66 VALLEY FLOOR. 50-55 RIDGE (8800 FT).
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (60000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100416.NORTH.01/RIW