FNUS73 KAPX 191542
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAULY BLACK...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH FLOW AT BURN SITE AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE HURON.
THE LAKE BREEZES MAY ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE 40 PERCENT AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THANKS TO A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
HURON.

IF THE LAKE BREEZE IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES
MAY MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 50S BUT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3400-3500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........0      5      5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     52     51
RH..............54     43     41
20 FT WIND......N 6    NE 7   NE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     13     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4
SMOKE DISP......200    300    400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........5      7      7      7      7      7
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     48     45     40     38     35
RH..............43     45     53     67     76     85
20 FT WIND......NE 6   NW 1   NW 1   W 2    W 1    W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10                   5      5
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5
SMOKE DISP......200    0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...JAMES KEYSOR
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100419.PAULY.01/APX