FNUS73 KAPX 201327
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARZINSKI...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BURN WILL BE HOW FAR INLAND
DOES THE COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN GET. THE BURN
AREA IS JUST ON THE EDGE WHERE THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR WOULD GET.
THE WORST CASE EXPECTED IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES DON'T GET MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S AND THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOESN'T
GO BELOW 45 PCT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EARLY...THEN INCREASE AND GET A BIT MORE
GUSTY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ISN'T EXPECTED
INTO THE BURN AREA UNTIL 2AM AT THE EARLIEST...AND THEN THE WIND
SHIFT FROM IT WOULDN'T BE EVIDENT UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4300-4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53  50  50  50  49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............61  61  61  62  61
RH..............35  33  33  31  32
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  15  15
HAINES INDEX....4   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......300 400 400 500 400

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100420.MARZI.01/APX