FNUS75 KGJT 200436
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK PARK...USFS ASHLEY NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 PM MDT MON APR 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...FOR SOME
INSTABILITY. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF IT. VALLEY
INVERSIONS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...WITH GRADIENT
WINDS OVER THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGETOPS. ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A MARKED COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) WITH AFTERNOON TOWERING
                    CUMULUS AND VIRGA.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-26%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 2-6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR
                    VIRGA.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 500 UNTIL 1100...INCREASING TO 1050
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...INCREASING
                    TO 10000 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 10-20
                    MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 500 EXCEPT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 40 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS DEETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100420.ELKPA.01/GJT