FNUS73 KAPX 211244 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR GREEN TIMBERS...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 844 AM EDT WED APR 21 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AT THE IGNITION SITE PRESENTLY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE CLOUDS CLING TO AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THEM TO MIX OUT AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 4000 FEET. THUS...BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES AT THE IGNITION SITE TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50. THE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF BETTER MIXING...WILL ALSO YIELD HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) LATE. TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 49. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3900-4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........70 60 40 35 13 26 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 48 49 49 49 49 RH..............43 42 42 42 42 42 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 10 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 500 600 600 600 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....22. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........26 21 21 21 27 27 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 41 36 31 27 25 RH..............43 48 56 66 78 88 20 FT WIND......N 8 N 7 N 7 N 6 N 5 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......500 400 100 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........27 23 23 23 42 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............22 28 40 48 52 56 RH..............96 85 50 34 28 24 20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 6 NE 5 N 5 N 6 N 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 200 400 500 400 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100421.GREEN.01/APX