FNUS75 KBOU 202231 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR NOTT CREEK UNIT 3 RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 423 PM MDT TUE APR 20 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE BURN AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY AND THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSETTLED AS WELL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62. MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8200-9200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-41. MAX HUMIDITY........75-79%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 1200-2200 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-52. MIN HUMIDITY........54-58%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST 8-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR NOTT CREEK UNIT 3 RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/20-16 84 40 51 45 NE 6 6 4 4461 NW 8 38322 P 04/20-17 75 40 54 34 N 5 5 4 6151 W 10 65871 G 04/20-18 70 30 56 27 N 5 5 3 4 W25 7842 W 14 93420 G 04/20-19 70 30 55 26 N 5 4 6865 W 10 67629 G 04/20-20 70 30 53 28 N 3 4 5887 W 7 41837 F 04/20-21 73 30 51 30 NE 3 3 3 4 W18 4910 W 3 16046 P 04/20-22 73 30 48 33 N 3 4 3656 SW 5 12386 P 04/20-23 73 30 46 36 W 3 4 2401 S 5 8726 P 04/21-00 38 10 43 40 SW 3 3 2 1 W16 1146 S 5 5066 P 04/21-01 38 10 40 45 SW 5 1 851 S 6 3918 P 04/21-02 38 10 38 50 SW 7 1 556 SW 7 2769 P 04/21-03 42 10 35 54 W 8 8 2 1 W13 261 SW 7 1621 P 04/21-04 42 10 34 57 W 9 1 229 SW 7 1315 P 04/21-05 42 10 33 57 SW 8 1 196 SW 6 1009 P 04/21-06 72 10 33 55 SW 7 7 2 1 W22 163 SW 5 703 P 04/21-07 72 10 36 48 SW 6 1 824 SW 6 4254 P 04/21-08 72 10 41 40 S 5 1 1486 SW 6 7805 P 04/21-09 72 10 46 33 SE 3 3 2 1 W31 2147 S 6 11356 P 04/21-10 72 10 51 27 SE 5 1 4062 S 7 30527 P 04/21-11 72 10 56 23 E 6 1 5976 SW 9 49698 F 04/21-12 80 30 59 21 E 7 7 3 4 SW23 7890 SW 10 68868 G 04/21-13 80 30 61 19 E 8 4 8360 SW 12 80937 G 04/21-14 80 30 61 19 E 9 4 8830 S 12 93006 G 04/21-15 80 30 61 21 E 9 9 2 4 SW24 9300 S 13 105075 V 04/21-16 80 30 60 26 E 9 4 8675 S 13 97051 G 04/21-17 80 30 58 35 SE 8 4 8051 S 13 89028 G 04/21-18 80 37 59 40 SE 8 8 3 4 SW25 7426 S 13 81004 G 04/21-19 80 37 57 46 SE 9 4 5803 S 15 67482 G 04/21-20 80 37 52 54 SE 10 4 4180 S 16 53960 F 04/21-21 80 37 49 58 SE 12 12 3 4 SW22 2557 S 18 40438 F 04/21-22 80 37 47 61 SE 13 4 2316 S 20 39066 P 04/21-23 80 37 45 64 S 13 4 2076 S 21 37697 P 04/22-00 80 37 44 66 S 13 13 2 1 S43 1835 S 23 36329 P 04/22-01 80 37 43 69 S 12 1 1541 S 23 30684 P 04/22-02 80 37 42 73 SE 10 1 1247 S 23 25040 P 04/22-03 80 37 42 74 SE 9 9 3 1 S36 953 S 23 19395 P 04/22-04 80 37 41 75 SE 8 1 978 S 20 16371 P 04/22-05 80 37 41 74 SE 6 1 1003 S 15 13346 P 04/22-06 80 37 42 72 SE 5 5 3 1 S40 1028 S 12 10322 P 04/22-07 80 37 42 73 SE 3 1 1410 S 12 14858 P 04/22-08 80 37 43 69 E 2 1 1792 S 13 19395 P 04/22-09 80 37 46 64 E 2 2 3 1 S43 2175 S 13 23931 P 04/22-10 80 37 48 59 E 2 1 2576 S 13 27481 P 04/22-11 80 37 48 58 E 3 1 2978 S 12 31032 P 04/22-12 73 52 48 58 E 5 5 3 4 S45 3380 S 12 34582 P 04/22-13 73 52 49 57 E 5 4 3658 S 12 34511 P 04/22-14 73 52 49 56 E 5 4 3936 S 10 34439 P 04/22-15 73 52 50 54 E 6 6 3 4 S37 4214 SE 9 34368 P 04/22-16 73 52 50 54 NE 8 4 4372 S 10 37752 P 04/22-17 73 52 50 54 NW 10 4 4529 S 10 41136 F 04/22-18 73 52 49 55 W 13 13 3 4 S23 4686 SW 12 44521 F 04/22-19 73 52 47 55 W 13 4 3355 SW 12 31927 P 04/22-20 73 52 44 59 W 10 4 2024 W 12 19334 P 04/22-21 73 52 42 60 W 9 9 3 4 S32 692 W 12 6741 P 04/22-22 73 52 40 62 W 7 4 1063 NW 9 7881 P 04/22-23 73 52 39 64 W 5 4 1434 NW 8 9022 P 04/23-00 78 30 38 67 W 3 3 3 1 SW21 1805 NW 7 10163 P 04/23-01 78 30 38 69 W 5 1 1743 NW 7 10915 P 04/23-02 78 30 37 70 W 6 1 1681 NW 8 11666 P 04/23-03 78 30 37 70 W 7 7 3 1 S15 1620 NW 9 12418 P 04/23-04 78 30 36 69 W 7 1 2095 NW 9 16541 P 04/23-05 78 30 37 66 NW 7 1 2570 N 9 20664 P 04/23-06 78 37 37 62 NW 8 8 3 1 NE12 3045 N 9 24787 P 04/23-07 78 37 37 60 NW 10 1 3503 N 13 40843 F 04/23-08 78 37 38 55 NW 14 1 3961 NW 16 56898 F 04/23-09 78 37 40 51 W 17 28 2 1 NE18 4419 NW 20 72954 G 04/23-10 78 37 41 49 W 18 1 4627 NW 20 79323 G 04/23-11 78 37 41 51 W 20 1 4834 NW 21 85693 G 04/23-12 90 37 42 53 W 20 31 2 1 N 3 5041 NW 21 92062 G 04/23-13 90 37 42 54 W 21 1 4977 NW 21 90825 G 04/23-14 90 37 42 54 W 21 1 4913 NW 21 89588 G 04/23-15 90 37 43 53 W 22 35 2 1 NW 8 4849 NW 21 88352 G 04/23-16 90 37 43 53 W 23 1 4258 NW 24 85062 G 04/23-17 90 37 43 53 W 24 1 3668 NW 26 81773 G 04/23-18 90 57 43 54 W 24 39 3 1 N15 3078 NW 29 78484 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100421.NOTTC.01/BOU