FNUS75 KGJT 210501
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK PARK...USFS ASHLEY NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 PM MDT TUE APR 20 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL STRONG SOUTH FLOW IS IN STORE FOR TODAY.
THE UPSLOPE/NORTH WINDS YOU EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY BE
OVERCOME BY THE SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINT TODAY WILL LIKELY KEEP YOUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 3-4F
LESS WARM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE UINTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT THE BURN SITE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT PASSES. THE BURN SITE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...MELTING OR TURNING TO RAIN DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL UNSTABLE AIR AND SHOWERS
OCCURS FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS
ENDING LATE SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 10-17 MPH. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......500+ AT 0930...INCREASING TO 1000+ BEFORE NOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT 0930 INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 MPH AT 0930 INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-95%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ IN SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4000 FT AGL TOWARDS
                    MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ IN MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON MIXING.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 MPH DECREASING TO WEST 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS DEETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100421.ELKPA.01/GJT