FNUS75 KRIW 211757
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FONTENELLE WILLOW RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1157 AM MDT WED APR 21 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK EAST TO
COLORADO FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL CREATE A THREAT OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
                    THIS AFTERNOON (85 TO 95 PERCENT). THEN CUMULUS BUILD UPS
                    WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
                    1300 AND 1400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 35
                    MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................43 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 32
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (160700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN NORTHERLY 3 TO 6 MPH
                    BY 0300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 20
                    MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CWR.................76 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 26 TO 31 MPH DECREASING TO 17 TO 20
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (103800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (44800 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHERLY 4-7 MPH. THEN SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    15 MPH AFTER 0900. AFTER 1600 NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (38200-41400 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...BANISTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100421.FONTE.01/RIW