FNUS73 KAPX 221414 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SILVER 3...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1014 AM EDT THU APR 22 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING...AND THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. IT SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED BY IGNITION TIME...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. IF THE FIRE LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LAKE BREEZE DISSIPATES AROUND 700 PM. THE AIR WILL BE DRY...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 1 TO 3 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4600-5200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (200). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........46 43 43 43 43 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 51 51 51 52 RH..............39 37 37 36 35 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 200 200 100 100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........43 44 44 44 24 24 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 45 40 36 35 33 RH..............37 47 57 67 69 78 20 FT WIND......E 6 E 5 SE 4 SE 3 S 2 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 5 SMOKE DISP......100 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100422.SILVE.01/APX