FNUS73 KAPX 231206 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR GREEN TIMBERS...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 806 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BURN AREA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. THE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS TODAY...AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6000 FT. THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH 600 PM. IF THE BURN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BETWEEN 600 AND 800 PM. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT... AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...SUGGEST THAT A DIMINISHING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE. IF THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN ABRUPT WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10 MPH. BY LATE EVENING...LARGE-SCALE WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 65. MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4800-6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 59 61 63 64 65 RH..............32 28 25 23 23 23 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......200 300 200 300 300 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 13 15 15 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 58 50 45 42 40 RH..............24 28 42 55 65 70 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 S 3 S 3 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 400 100 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62. MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(600). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........15 63 63 81 WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............39 44 56 61 RH..............73 60 37 29 20 FT WIND......S 1 SE 4G10 SE 7G15 E 9G20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 200 600 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100423.GREEN.01/APX