FNUS73 KAPX 231156 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SILVER 3...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 756 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT IGNITION TIME EXPECTED TO BACK MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND. BIGGER STORY REMAINS RH VALUES...WITH READINGS QUICKLY PLUMMETING THIS MORNING...REACHING THE MID 30S BY IGNITION TIME...AND THE MID 20S DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ONCE LAKE HURON BREEZE REACHES THE SITE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN STABILIZE FOR THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD RH RECOVERY EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 62. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............52 56 58 60 61 62 61 RH..............41 34 30 27 26 25 26 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......300 300 400 300 300 300 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 7 16 16 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 56 49 42 39 36 RH..............28 37 52 70 76 82 20 FT WIND......SE 3 E 5 SE 5 S 3 S 2 S 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......200 100 100 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100423.SILVE.01/APX