FNUS74 KLIX 281806 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 106 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDING... 1700Z RUC13 MODEL RUN FOR SPOT LOCATION...DRY LAPSE RATE UP TO 3400 FT AND NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...LEVELING OFF THROUGH 00Z THEN LOWERING TO ABOUT 1900 FT BY 05Z. INVERSION BASE TEMP 10C...ISOTHEMAL TO NOSE AT 8300FT AT 16Z STREGTHENING TO 11C AND LOWERING TO 7300FT BY 20Z...CAP STRENGTH 1C WITH NO TEMPORAL CHANGES INDICATED IN LATEST MODEL RUN. RUC13 SOUNDING PROFILE WINDS SHOW SE 5KT TO 1900FT...CALM 1900-2400 FT....NW 15 TO 40KT TO 15.5KFT...W 35 TO 40 KT TO 24.4KFT...W-SW 50 TO 115 KT ABOVE 25KFT. SURFACE... AT 1PM CDT...NEARLY ALL REPORTABLE WINDS IN PROXIMITY ARE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 1019MB HIGH FLATTENING A BIT OVER LAND AREAS WITH A 1019MB BUBBLE BEGINNING TO BREAK OFF IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SOUTH OF THE SPOT LOCATION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SETTLE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS NOW THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION... VFR CAVU FROM COAST LINE NORTH. VFR CAVOK HIGH CIRRUS BASED BKN250 FROM COAST SOUTH. GULF BREEZE ALTOCUMULUS BAND DEVELOPING ALONG LA COAST FROM PORT FOURCHON WESTWARD TO ABOUT 10 NM SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND ESTIMATED BASE SCT120. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........4 11 38 46 46 45 45 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 68 69 68 68 68 68 68 RH..............51 51 57 57 57 57 57 57 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E NE NE E 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE E E E SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........22 15 15 15 20 20 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............68 68 67 65 64 64 RH..............59 59 63 70 73 73 20 FT WIND......SE 4 SE 6 SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3600 2700 2500 2500 2400 2200 MIX HGT (M).....1100 820 760 760 730 670 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 SE 7 SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 13 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 6 SE 7 SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............2 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........20 20 20 20 45 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............64 66 70 74 75 75 RH..............78 78 71 66 66 66 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 11 SE 12 SE 13 SE 13 SE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2100 2000 2000 2200 2400 MIX HGT (M).....670 640 610 610 670 730 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 16 SE 18 SE 18 SE 23 SE 24 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 13 SE 16 SE 18 SE 18 SE 23 SE 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............2 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP BECOMING CHOPPY $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100428.DEEPW.06/LIX