FNUS74 KLIX 282109 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 409 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDING... NO CHANGES ARE INDICATED TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. RUC13 21Z MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS SE 5-10KT SFC-2600FT...NW 10-35KT TO 9300FT...W 30-40KT TO 26KFT...50-115KT ABOVE 26KFT. DRY ADIABAT TO 3450FT...INVERSION BASE TEMP 11C...NOSE TEMP 12C AT 6700FT. SURFACE... BROAD 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLED OVER SPOT LOCATION AND EXTENDING NORTH...VERY FLAT GRADIENT. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS UNDER RIDGE. GULF BREEZE CONVERGENT WIND NOTED FROM LUMCON WESTWARD THROUGH TX COAST. LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE FROM ALABAMA TO THE MS RIVER DELTA SOUTHWARD 100 NM OFF SHORE...INCLUDING THE SPOT LOCATION AND PROXIMITY. AVIATION... VFR CAVOK WITH DEBRIS CIRRUS BASED AOA BKN180. LIGHT TURBULENCE AND MINOR RIME ICING POSSIBLE AOA FL180 ADVANCING FROM WSW 40 KT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER DISTURBANCE ABOVE 500 MB. RADAR... LOW REFLECTIVITY RETURNS BELOW 20DBZ LIKELY SNOW VIRGA AOA 19KFT ADVANCING ENE 37 KT AND CENTERED ABOUT 120 NM SW OF SPOT LOCATION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE SPOT LOCATION. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............72 70 70 69 67 66 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 RH..............47 50 53 59 61 67 70 70 73 73 75 75 75 75 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD.. 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 3.6 3.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 MIX HGT (KM)....1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 5 5 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH...ALL SWELL .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........8 6 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............64 64 66 68 70 72 74 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............75 78 75 73 71 68 66 66 66 69 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.10 15 15 15 21 21 21 23 23 23 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 7 7 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP BECOMING CHOPPY .THURSDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........3 6 23 23 40 49 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 71 69 69 69 69 RH..............71 79 87 87 93 97 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1900 1600 1600 1400 1100 MIX HGT (M).....610 580 490 490 430 340 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 22 SE 24 SE 26 SE 26 SE 28 SE 29 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 22 SE 24 SE 26 SE 26 SE 28 SE 29 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 SEAS............4 5 5 5 6 6 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BECOMING ROUGH LATE $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100428.DEEPW.09/LIX