FNUS74 KLIX 282338 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 638 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDING... LIGHT SE TO NE WINDS EXPECTED TO 2000 FT...NW-W 10-35KT TO 24KFT...W-WSW 45-135KT ABOVE 24KFT...MAX WIND 145KT AT 40-46KFT. DRY LAPSE RATE TO 3500 FT...11C AT BASE ISOTHERMAL INVERSION TO 13C NOSE 5900FT. VERY DRY THROUGHOUT 00Z-03Z. SURFACE... SLOWLY ERODING FLAT 1017MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH GULF. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FROM TERREBONNE BAY WESTWARD WITH STRONG GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING OVER LOWER PLAINS STATES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE LEVELED OFF 45-50 PERCENT IN PROXIMITY TO SPOT LOCATION. AVIATION... VFR CAVOK WITH DEBRIS CIRRUS BASED AOA BKN180. LIGHT TURBULENCE AND MINOR RIME ICING POSSIBLE AOA FL180 ADVANCING FROM WSW 40 KT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER DISTURBANCE ABOVE 500 MB. RADAR... LOW REFLECTIVITY RETURNS BELOW 20DBZ LIKELY SNOW VIRGA AOA 19KFT ADVANCING ENE 35 KT AND CENTERED ABOUT 40 NM SW OF SPOT LOCATION. THE RETURNS ARE GETTING DISPERSED BUT STILL ADVANCING WITH ISOLATED PIXELS 20-25DBZ AT 26KFT POSSIBLE ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT SURFACE. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY PASS ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF THE SPOT LOCATION. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........74 74 68 68 7 8 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 68 67 68 68 66 RH..............51 56 61 63 68 70 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 SE 7 SE 8 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3600 2200 1900 1900 1600 1700 MIX HGT (M).....1100 670 580 580 490 520 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 SE 5 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 6 SE 5 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............2 2 2 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH...ALL SWELL .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........8 6 0 0 0 3 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............66 66 70 74 75 75 RH..............70 75 71 66 66 69 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 11 SE 12 SE 13 SE 13 SE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....1700 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 MIX HGT (M).....520 610 610 610 610 610 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 15 SE 21 SE 21 SE 23 SE 22 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 10 SE 15 SE 21 SE 21 SE 23 SE 22 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............3 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP BECOMING CHOPPY .THURSDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........3 6 23 23 40 49 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 71 69 69 69 69 RH..............71 79 87 87 93 97 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1900 1600 1600 1400 1100 MIX HGT (M).....610 580 490 490 430 340 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 22 SE 24 SE 26 SE 26 SE 28 SE 29 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 22 SE 24 SE 26 SE 26 SE 28 SE 29 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 SEAS............4 5 5 5 6 6 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BECOMING ROUGH $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/22 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100428.DEEPW.11/LIX