FNUS74 KLIX 011317 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 817 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RELAXING A BIT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK COUNTY. .SOUNDING... RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 11Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 3100FT WITH AN INDICATION OF MARINE LAYER POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO A CUMULUS AND TCU FIELD. VERY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT OR MARINE FUNNEL CLOUD PRODUCTION THIS MORNING. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWING ISOTHERMAL SATURATED PROFILE SURFACE TO 4400FT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE 4400FT /863MB/. P.W. 1.81" AND HELICITY 346 M2/S2. SE WINDS 25-40KT TO 2500FT...SW 40KT TO 25KFT THEN W 45-90KT ABOVE 25KFT. MAX WIND 265/92KT AT 44KFT. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK BKN-OVC010-012 COVERS MUCH OF THE NEAR COASTAL AREA AND EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF AS A UNIFORM DECK PER IR MIXED CHANNEL IMAGERY. VSBY 4-5SM BR AND HZ OVER LAND AND 3SM HZ OVER COASTAL WATERS. CIGS SLOW TO IMPROVE THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST SHOULD ONSET NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY ERODE THE CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL WATERS OUT 5-10 NM FROM SHORE. CLOUD DECK EROSION WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE SCT-BKN020TCU MAINLY AFTER 16Z. .RADAR... NO CONVECTIVE RETURNS ARE NOTED HOWEVER EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY BE PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...AS INDICATED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LARGE SUB-INVERSION AP PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO ERODE INDICATING DESTABILIZATION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LA. NO LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE GLFMEX OR LA. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........55 53 53 53 50 50 50 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 78 79 80 80 81 81 81 80 RH..............87 82 79 77 77 74 74 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 CIGS (FT-AGL)...B11 B12 B14 B15 S18 S25 S25 S25 S25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.40 43 43 43 41 41 41 41 41 TRANS SPD (M/S).18 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 65 70 70 79 84 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 77 75 74 73 73 RH..............79 85 90 93 96 97 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 40 40 40 MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 500 500 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....120 150 150 150 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......20 20 20 20 30 30 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 92 91 91 90 92 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 74 78 80 81 81 RH..............99 93 82 76 73 73 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 30 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......30 50 50 50 50 50 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.03/LIX