FNUS74 KLIX 011410 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 910 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RELAXING A BIT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK COUNTY. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR ST LOUIS MO...SSW TO KTXK...TO A 997MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR KBRO. A LARGE NOSE OF 70F+ DEWPOINT AIR ALL THE WAY NORTH TO KMEM WHERE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. .SOUNDING... RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 11Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 3100FT WITH AN INDICATION OF MARINE LAYER POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO A CUMULUS AND TCU FIELD. VERY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT OR MARINE FUNNEL CLOUD PRODUCTION THIS MORNING. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWING ISOTHERMAL SATURATED PROFILE SURFACE TO 4400FT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE 4400FT /863MB/. P.W. 1.81" AND HELICITY 346 M2/S2. SE WINDS 25-40KT TO 2500FT...SW 40KT TO 25KFT THEN W 45-90KT ABOVE 25KFT. MAX WIND 265/92KT AT 44KFT. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK BKN-OVC010-012 COVERS MUCH OF THE NEAR COASTAL AREA AND EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF AS A UNIFORM DECK PER IR MIXED CHANNEL IMAGERY. VSBY 4-5SM BR AND HZ OVER LAND AND 3SM HZ OVER COASTAL WATERS. CIGS SLOW TO IMPROVE THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST SHOULD ONSET NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY ERODE THE CLOUD DECK OVER COASTAL WATERS OUT 5-10 NM FROM SHORE. CLOUD DECK EROSION WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE SCT-BKN020TCU MAINLY AFTER 16Z. SOME FLUSHING OF SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER TAKING PLACE WITH ADVANCE OF MARITIME CUMULUS FIELD MOVING NORTH FROM YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ABOUT 28N LATITUDE. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 011400Z 0114/0212 13015G25KT 4SM BR OVC012 FM011500 14017G25KT P6SM SCT015 BKN020 FM012000 15020G28KT P6SM BKN018 TEMPO 0120/0124 SCT018 SCT025 FM020300 17015KT 5SM BR OV012 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR OVC008= KBVE 011140Z 0112/0212 14015G25KT 4SM BR SCT011 FM011600 16017G25KT 6SM HZ BKN022 FM020100 15015KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010= .RADAR... NO CONVECTIVE RETURNS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF KESF. LARGE STRATUS DECK WITH STRATIFORM 20DBZ RETURNS NOTED FROM VICINITY THIBODAUX NORTHWARD TO E OF KBTR. CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN N LA INTO EXTREME NW MS WITH LIGHTNING INCREASING WELL CLOSER TO I-20 CORRIDOR. NO LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE GLFMEX OR S LA/S MS. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 53 53 50 50 50 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 79 80 80 81 81 81 80 RH..............82 79 77 77 74 74 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 CIGS (FT-AGL)...S11 S15 S20 S22 S22 S25 S25 S25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.43 43 43 41 41 41 41 41 TRANS SPD (M/S).19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH.................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 65 70 70 79 84 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 77 75 74 73 73 RH..............79 85 90 93 96 97 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 40 40 40 MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 500 500 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....120 150 150 150 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH............................ .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 92 91 91 90 92 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 74 78 80 81 81 RH..............99 93 82 76 73 73 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 30 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH............................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 16 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.04/LIX