FNUS74 KLIX 011524 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1024 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG MS RIVER NEAR KSTL...THRU KLIT...JUST WEST KSHV...KCLL...TO 997MB LOW BTWN KBRO-KCRP ON LOWER TX COAST. VERY RICH 70+ DEWPOINT AIR TO KMEM AREA. .SOUNDING... /NO CHANGES/ RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 11Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 3100FT WITH AN INDICATION OF MARINE LAYER POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO A CUMULUS AND TCU FIELD. VERY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT OR MARINE FUNNEL CLOUD PRODUCTION THIS MORNING. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWING ISOTHERMAL SATURATED PROFILE SURFACE TO 4400FT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE 4400FT /863MB/. P.W. 1.81" AND HELICITY 346 M2/S2. SE WINDS 25-40KT TO 2500FT...SW 40KT TO 25KFT THEN W 45-90KT ABOVE 25KFT. MAX WIND 265/92KT AT 44KFT. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCT011-015 AT KBVE WITH DECK ERODING N-S. MARITIME CU AND TCU ADVANCING NNW-N FROM YUCATAN CHANNEL. DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE WITH LOW CLOUDS FROM PORT FOURCHON WESTWARD AND STREAMING INLAND TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO NEAR KBTR...MOVING N 25KT. NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS E OF 90W/S OF 30N P6SM SCT015 THRU 18Z...PROB30 BKN020TCU...ISOLD WATERSPOUTS. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 011500Z 0115/0215 13025G30KT 6SM HZ BKN013 TEMPO 0115/0117 SCT013 FM011700 14020G30KT P6SM SCT015TCU TEMPO 0120/0123 18025G35KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM020300 17015G25KT 5SM -RA BR OV012 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0208/0213 2SM BR OVC005= KBVE 011500Z 0115/0215 14020G30KT 5SM HZ SCT016 FM011700 16020G30KT 6SM HZ SCT022 PROB30 0119/0122 4SM -SHRA BKN020CB FM020100 15015G25KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010= .RADAR... SCATTERED CONVECTION ERUPTING FROM MORGAN CITY...THROUGH THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO NEAR SIMMESPORT NORTHWARD...MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS. LIGHTNING DETECTED VICINITY KBTR. TORNADO WATCH POSTED IN MISSISSIPPI JUST NORTH OF LIX CWA. SPC POSTED HIGH RISK SEVERE FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TMSY VWP SHOWS 30KT WINDS AT 1KFT...40KT 2KFT...45-60KT AOA 3KFT. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 53 50 50 50 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 80 80 81 81 81 80 RH..............79 77 77 74 74 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..15 16 16 16 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 CIG (FT-AGL)....S15 S18 S22 S22 S25 S25 S25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.43 43 41 41 41 41 41 TRANS SPD (M/S).19 19 18 18 18 18 18 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............9 9 10 10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH................ .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 65 70 70 79 84 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 77 75 74 73 73 RH..............79 85 90 93 96 97 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 40 40 40 MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 500 500 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....120 150 150 150 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 41 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH........................... .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 92 91 91 90 92 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 74 78 80 81 81 RH..............99 93 82 76 73 73 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 30 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH.............................. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.05/LIX