FNUS74 KLIX 011611 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG MS RIVER FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NEAR POPLAR BLUFF AR...NEAR KTXK...W OF KIAH TO 998MB LOW NEAR KCRP. EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTION NOTED FROM I-20 NORTHWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. .SOUNDING... RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 14Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION 2300FT...WARM NOSE PEAKING AT 4KFT AT 18Z. WINDS SE 20-35KT THROUGH 2300FT...SW 30-40KT TO 18KFT...50-65KT ABOVE 18KFT. VERY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT OR MARINE FUNNEL CLOUD PRODUCTION UNDER TOWERING CUMULI. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK ERODING TO CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH BUT STILL HOLDING FIRM FROM LAFOURCHE PARISH WESTWARD. LOWER PLAQUEMINES BASES SCT015-010 AT KBVE. NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS E OF 90W/S OF 30N P6SM FEW015-020 THRU 21Z...PROB30 BKN020TCU...ISOLD WATERSPOUTS. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 011600Z 0116/0216 13025G30KT P6SM BKN015 FM011700 14022G32KT P6SM SCT015TCU TEMPO 0120/0123 18025G35KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM020300 17015G25KT 5SM -RA BR OV012 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0208/0213 2SM BR OVC005 FM021500 15012KT 5SM HZ BKN008= KBVE 011600Z 0116/0216 14020G30KT 5SM HZ FEW016 FM011700 16020G30KT 6SM HZ SCT022 PROB30 0119/0122 4SM -SHRA BKN020CB FM020100 15015G25KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010= .RADAR... SCATTERED CONVECTION ERUPTING FROM MORGAN CITY...THROUGH THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO NEAR SIMMESPORT NORTHWARD...MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS. LIGHTNING DETECTED VICINITY KBTR. TORNADO WATCH POSTED IN MISSISSIPPI JUST NORTH OF LIX CWA. SPC POSTED HIGH RISK SEVERE FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TMSY VWP SHOWS 30KT WINDS AT 1KFT...40KT 2KFT...45-60KT AOA 3KFT. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 53 50 50 56 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............80 80 81 81 81 81 80 RH..............79 77 77 74 74 77 79 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 16 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIG (FT-AGL)....F15 F18 S20 S22 S25 S25 S25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.30 30 28 28 29 29 29 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 13 13 13 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............9 10 10 10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH................ .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 65 70 70 79 84 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 77 75 74 73 73 RH..............79 85 90 93 96 97 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 29 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH............................ .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 92 91 91 90 92 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 74 78 80 81 81 RH..............99 93 82 76 73 73 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......30 50 50 50 50 50 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 18 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. && NAMROS TERICK KNEW 011520 MSY NAM ROS GUIDANCE 05/01/2010 1200UTC WKDY SAT SUN MON TUE DATE /MAY 1 /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MXMN 85( 85) 74( 74) 81( 81) 73( 73) 84( 84) 73( 73) 79 TEMP 83 85 82 77 75 75 75 75 78 81 80 76 74 74 74 73 77 82 83 78 76 74 74 73 75 79 78 78 DWPT 73 74 74 74 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 72 72 72 74 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 73 74 72 74 HINX 88 92 88 78 75 75 75 75 80 85 84 76 74 74 74 73 78 87 89 81 76 74 74 73 75 82 81 80 CLDS B6 B3 S2 B1 B1 O1 B1 O1 B2 O3 O3 B2 O1 O3 B1 O1 B5 B5 O3 B O1 O1 O2 O1 O1 O1 B6 B4 CLHT 58 26 16 12 11 15 14 15 20 32 32 18 11 28 15 12 54 54 26 15 14 15 17 11 11 11 62 39 TMPO 09 06 05 06 08 12 18 16 09 06 05 05 05 09 22 24 14 06 05 03 03 06 44 09 TTSK MC OV PC OV OV OV OV OV MC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV MC MC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV MC OV VSBY P6 P6 P6 P6 04 06 P6 P6 06 P6 05 1H 04 P6 05 05 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 05 04 04 06 P6 P6 P6 OBVS BR -R -R -R R -R -R -R BR BR BR BR TYPF SF RF RF RF RF WDIR 17 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 20 19 20 15 17 16 16 15 14 16 16 25 33 05 WSPD 22 23 21 17 17 16 14 16 18 22 18 15 11 11 07 03 05 02 06 09 06 04 02 02 05 02 03 08 GUST 26 24 26 24 25 22 08 05 09 09 04 PP06 30 45 49 58 43 68 87 78 45 49 59 60 54 34 PP12 51 69 71 97 63 74 58 TTPP 00 00 02 02 00 01 00 00 07 01 13 20 00 14 14 11 02 02 03 01 00 01 00 00 00 03 04 RQPF 00 TR 12 12 12 12 17 14 16 16 22 44 43 32 25 29 15 05 14 04 20 16 19 18 17 15 10 10 TOTR 24 55 97 129 37 74 52 PTYP RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...-12NAM84.MSY 2MTP 85 88 83 77 75 75 75 75 78 83 80 76 74 74 74 74 78 84 84 78 76 74 74 74 76 81 79 78 SKTP 90 96 83 77 75 75 74 75 80 91 82 76 74 74 73 74 81 94 85 77 75 74 74 74 78 88 83 78 BLTP 81 85 83 79 75 75 75 74 77 79 79 77 75 74 74 73 75 79 84 80 76 75 74 73 74 78 78 79 SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS: WKDY SAT SUN MON TUE DATE /MAY 1 /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 RINX 159119 44 61 82 59 73 68 92 94 17 48 85 82 75 30 42 20 20 37 00 00 00 38 28 03 23 19 SVR% 49 09 RIHL 121 39 04 09 06 05 14 15 10 09 07 .XXIN RICG 73 53 22 32 27 25 37 40 31 29 25 KNTS RITN E2 WS WS WS WS EFSCL R3SG 116 MPH WMB# WMBS NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL LINX -1 -2 -1 -1 00 00 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 SHOW -3 -2 00 00 00 00 -1 -4 -5 -3 00 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 00 00 -1 00 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 00 00 SWET 43 38 33 36 42 42 42 40 40 34 31 30 34 40 40 36 32 32 34 24 42 42 42 30 30 35 26 24 XX0 KINX 26 41 39 35 36 36 36 36 40 39 37 40 40 41 41 39 38 32 36 35 39 38 40 39 38 34 33 25 TOTL 48 48 45 44 43 44 46 50 51 48 45 46 47 48 48 46 46 45 46 45 48 50 50 50 50 49 47 45 CAPE 86164154114 62 51 51 45 61 79 81 70 45 45 38 32 44 92134114 53 46 55 61 67113 75142 0J/KG PWAT 18 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 22 23 23 26 25 24 24 23 21 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 X.XIN LCLH 20 24 20 08 05 03 03 03 08 11 14 08 05 03 03 02 05 22 12 05 03 02 02 03 06 12 08 00FT LFCL 05 01 01 02 11 23 15 13 01 01 01 01 16 16 23 10 04 01 01 01 02 04 06 26 04 01 02 01 BULK 95 95 43 16 14 21 25 21 14 11 13 21 26 23 12 13 19 23 26 16 17 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 C/S HLCY 281177177288319304273351351298189163186180167 76 43 37 69 72163106 98 72 69 72 26 51 M2/S2 ENHI 12 14 14 17 12 09 11 12 06 05 05 04 01 01 02 06 04 05 03 03 03 03 03 01 04 X.X TINX 05 07 06 05 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 04 05 05 06 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 04 04 AVIL 69 70 73 72 75 75 73 71 69 69 72 70 70 69 70 70 70 70 70 69 69 68 67 65 65 65 64 66 KG/M2 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.06/LIX