FNUS74 KLIX 011716 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROX FROM CHICAGO TO JUST W OF KSHV TO 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR KCRP...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. LARGE MCS OVER WESTERN TN INTO NW MS AND SE AR. LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG I-55 CORRIDOR FROM KGWO TO JUST NORTH OF KHDC...MOVING N 30-40KT. HIGH RISK SVR TSTMS NW MS/W TN. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 PM MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MS/AL LINE TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY INCLUDING TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY LIX CWA TIL 9 PM TONIGHT. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124 N LA/N AND CNTL MS TIL 4 PM TODAY. .SOUNDING... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE 15Z RUN COMPARED TO 14Z. RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 15Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION 2300FT...WARM NOSE PEAKING AT 4KFT AT 18Z. WINDS SE 20-35KT THROUGH 2300FT...SW 30-40KT TO 18KFT...50-65KT ABOVE 18KFT. VERY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT OR MARINE FUNNEL CLOUD PRODUCTION UNDER TOWERING CUMULI. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM ST BERNARD PARISH TO LOWRER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEW-SCT CUMULI FROM CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO THE COAST. OVER COASTAL WATERS E OF 90W/S OF 30N...FEW016 WITH SOME ADVANCING MARITIME CUMULI EST SCT-BKN022 S OF 28N. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 011700Z 0117/0217 13025G30KT P6SM BKN012TCU TEMPO 0120/0124 3SM TSRA BKN015CB FM020000 17015G25KT 5SM -RA BR OV012 FM020300 17015KT 6SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0208/0213 2SM BR OVC005 FM021500 15012KT 5SM HZ BKN008= KBVE 011600Z 0117/0217 14020G30KT 5SM HZ FEW013 FM011800 16020G30KT 6SM HZ SCT022 PROB30 0119/0122 4SM -SHRA BKN020CB FM020100 15015G25KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010= .RADAR... SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A BROAD LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN...KMCB MS...TO NEAR WALKER THEN WESTWARD TO KLFT. ALL MOVEMENT IS NORTH 45KT. MOST CONVECTION IN LA IS SHRA...WITH SOME LTG STRIKES IN S MS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. TMSY VWP SHOWS 30KT WINDS AT 1KFT...40KT 2KFT...45-60KT AOA 3KFT. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 50 50 56 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............80 81 81 81 81 81 RH..............79 79 77 74 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...F13 F15 F18 S22 S22 S22 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.30 28 28 29 29 29 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 13 13 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............10 10 10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 65 70 70 79 84 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 79 77 76 74 73 RH..............77 79 84 90 96 99 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 29 S 41 S 45 S 45 S 47 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......20 20 20 20 30 30 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 92 91 91 90 92 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 72 75 77 80 80 RH..............99 99 90 84 77 77 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 500 500 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 150 150 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 45 S 47 S 47 S 48 S 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......30 50 50 50 50 50 .OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. .OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. .OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 18 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.07/LIX