FNUS74 KLIX 011912 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROX FROM INDIANAPOLIS /KIND/ TO NEAR HOT SPRINGS /KHOT/...THEN RETREATING TO WEST OF KTXK TO KCLL...SOUTH TO A 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR KCRP. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF KHOT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE MCS WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN TN VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MS.. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN LA HAS DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY. HIGH RISK SVR TSTMS NW MS/W TN. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 PM MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MS/AL LINE TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY INCLUDING TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY LIX CWA TIL 9 PM TONIGHT. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124 N LA/N AND CNTL MS TIL 4 PM TODAY. LIX CWA...SLIGHT RISK SVR W OF LINE KGPT-GISL1. GENERAL TSTM E OF LINE INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS. .SOUNDING... /NO CHANGES/ RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 16Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION 1900FT...WARM NOSE PEAKING AT 4KFT AT 18Z. WINDS SE 20-30KT THROUGH 1900FT...S-SW 30-40KT TO 17KFT...50-75KT ABOVE 17KFT. LARGE TURNING HODOGRAPH BUT MARINE LAYER STABILITY LIKELY TO PRECLUDE WATERSPOUT THREAT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM ST BERNARD PARISH TO LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH AND REMAINING THICK UNDER WARM LAYER CAPPING ALOFT AROUND 2200FT. FEW-SCT CUMULI FROM CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO THE COAST. OVER COASTAL WATERS E OF 90W/S OF 30N...FEW016 WITH SOME ADVANCING MARITIME CUMULI EST SCT-BKN022 S OF 28N. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 011900Z 0119/0219 13025G30KT P6SM BKN012TCU FM020000 17015G25KT 5SM BR OV012 FM020300 17015KT 6SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0208/0213 2SM +RA BR OVC005 FM021500 15012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008= KBVE 011900Z 0119/0219 14020G30KT 5SM HZ FEW025 FM020100 15015G25KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM021200 18012KT 3SM RA BR OVC007= KHSA 011900Z 0119/0219 15015G22KT P6SM OVC016 FM012000 16015G22KT P5SM BKN022 FM021200 14015G20KT 3SM -SHRA OVC009 FM021500 14018G25KT 3SM -RA OVC007= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY FROM FRANKLINTON TO PONCHATOULA MOVING NORTH 45 KTS AND EVOLVING INTO TSTMS GENERALLY NORTH OF KMCB. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. TMSY VWP SHOWS S 30KT WINDS AT 1KFT...40KT 2KFT...30-35KT AOA 3KFT. MAX WIND 192/46KT AT 4KFT. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........73 68 66 67 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 81 81 81 RH..............77 74 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 18 17 20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 40 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...F25 F25 S25 S25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.28 29 29 29 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 SEAS............10 10 10 10 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH.... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........67 72 86 88 89 88 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 79 77 76 74 73 RH..............77 79 84 90 96 99 20 FT WIND......SE 17 SE 16 SE 15 SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 30 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 600 600 500 600 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 180 180 150 180 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 29 SE 26 SE 25 SE 25 SE 29 SE 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............10 10 10 10 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH............................. .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........90 92 98 100 100 99 WEATHER COV.....M M M M M M WEATHER TYPE....M M M M M M TEMP............72 72 75 77 80 80 RH..............99 99 90 84 77 77 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 600 600 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 180 180 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 28 S 29 S 30 S 30 S 28 S 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH............................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 18 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.09/LIX