FNUS74 KLIX 012121 CCA FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 418 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROX FROM INDIANAPOLIS /KIND/ TO NEAR HOT SPRINGS /KHOT/...THEN RETREATING TO WEST OF KTXK TO KCLL...SOUTH TO A 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR KCRP. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF KHOT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE MCS WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN TN VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MS.. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN LA HAS DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY. HIGH RISK SVR TSTMS NW MS/W TN. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 PM MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MS/AL LINE TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY INCLUDING TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY LIX CWA TIL 9 PM TONIGHT. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124 N LA/N AND CNTL MS TIL 4 PM TODAY. LIX CWA...SLIGHT RISK SVR W OF LINE KGPT-GISL1. GENERAL TSTM E OF LINE INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS. .SOUNDING... RUC13 MODEL FOR SPOT LOCATION OFF 20Z RUN SHOWS SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION 1900FT. WINDS SE 20-30KT THROUGH 1900FT...S-SW 30-40KT TO 17KFT...50-75KT ABOVE 17KFT. .AVIATION... MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCT-BKN GENERALLY N OF KNBG. VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER GLFMEX E OF 90W AND S OF 30N. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 012100Z 0121/0221 13025G30KT P6SM BKN013 BKN020 FM020300 17015KT 6SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0208/0213 2SM +RA BR OVC005 FM021500 15012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008 FM021800 16012KT P6SM SCT008 BKN015= KBVE 012100Z 0121/0221 14020G30KT 5SM HZ FEW025 FM020100 15015G25KT P6SM BKN015 FM020600 17015KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM021200 18012KT 3SM RA BR OVC007 FM022000 16012KT P6SM BKN015= KHSA 012100Z 0121/0221 15015G22KT P6SM BKN020 FM020000 16015KT P6SM BKN015 FM021200 14015G20KT 3SM -SHRA OVC009 FM021500 14018G25KT 3SM -RA OVC007 FM022000 16015KT P6SM BKN015= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... BANDS OF MARINE LAYER TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM COVINGTON AND STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO MS AND SLOWLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. NO ECHOES OVER GLFMEX AND NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. TMSY VWP SHOWS S 30KT WINDS AT 1KFT...40KT 2KFT...30-35KT AOA 3KFT. MAX WIND 192/46KT AT 4KFT. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........M 67 67 72 81 86 87 88 89 89 88 88 89 WEATHER COV.....M SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....M TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............M 80 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 74 73 73 72 RH..............M 77 77 79 81 84 85 90 94 96 99 99 100 20 FT WIND DIR..M SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..M 17 16 16 15 14 15 16 16 15 14 14 15 20 FT WIND GUST.M 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 30 30 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...M 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 MIX HGT (KM)....M 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIG (FT-AGL)....F22 F22 F22 S20 S20 S17 B15 B15 B14 B12 B11 B10 B10 TRANSP WIND DIR.M SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.M 29 26 26 26 25 25 25 29 29 29 28 28 TRANS SPD (M/S).M 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).M 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............M 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH......................................... .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........90 92 98 100 100 99 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 72 75 77 80 80 RH..............99 99 90 84 77 77 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 600 600 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 180 180 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 28 S 29 S 30 S 30 S 28 S 25 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 28 S 29 S 30 S 30 S 28 S 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............11 11 11 11 11 11 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH.............................. .SUNDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 77 75 74 73 72 RH..............82 85 94 97 100 100 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 S 15 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 30 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 500 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 150 150 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 S 25 S 25 S 25 S 24 S 25 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 25 S 25 S 25 S 25 S 24 S 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............ 6 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH.............................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100501.DEEPW.11/LIX