FNUS74 KLIX 021012 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 512 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG MS RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO JUST E OF KSHV TO OFFSHORE NEAR KGLS...TO A 1000MB SURFACE LOW OVER W GFLMEX NEAR 25.8N 93.7W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH 15 MB OF GRADIENT E OF 94W TO W FL COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOST BOUYS INDICATING 25KT GUSTS 30-34KT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... 08Z RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION INDICATED SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION AT 900 FT...ISOTHERMAL TO WARM NOSE AT 3100FT...SHALLOW LAPSE RATE TO 6500FT THEN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE ABOVE. MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO 1650 FT BY SUNRISE WITH WARM NOSE STRENGHTENING AT 3300FT. WIND PROFILE...SE 25-40KT SFC TO 1400FT...S 55KT AT 2400FT...SW 30-45 KT TO 26KFT...SW 50-55KT ABOVE 26KFT. .AVIATION... PER MIXED CHANNEL 11-3.9UM IR IMAGERY...LARGE EXPANSE OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W ESTD BKN-OVC013-016. SOME STRIATION BREAKS INDICATED ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY S OF 28.5N. AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK MAY BE OCCURRING FROM TERREBONNE BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG 90W INDICATIVE OF DEEPER MIXING OF COLUMN. EARLY MORNING HEATING MAY ACCELERATE EROSION OF STRATUS DECK FROM THE S AND W TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN025-030CU/TCU STREAKS AFTER 15Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021000Z 0210/0310 14020G30KT 56SM BR BKN013 FM021500 15022G32KT 6SM HZ BKN018 FM021800 16020G28KT P6SM SCT025TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 3SM -TSRA BKN017CB BKN025 FM022300 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM RA BR BKN008= KBVE 021000Z 0210/0310 16020G30KT 5SM HZ SCT013 TEMPO 0210/0214 BKN013 FM021500 17020G30KT P6SM SCT022 FM022200 19018G28KT 5SM HZ BKN025TCU TEMPO 0222/0302 2SM +TSRA BR BKN022CB FM030300 20012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008= KHSA 021000Z 0210/0310 17015G22KT P6SM OVC014 FM021500 17015G25KT P6SM SCT015 BKN025 FM021800 18018G30KT 6SM HZ SCT028TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB40KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC040 FM022200 17012KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC012CB TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 450 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN A BROKEN BAND FROM JUST N OF KBTR THROUGH SW MS STREAMING TO A MUCH LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WRN TN WHERE TORNADIC ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. NO RETURNS OVER THE GLFMEX AND NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THE GLFMEX. TMSY VWP INDICATES SSE 35KT AT 1KFT...S 45KT 2KFT...SSW 65KT AT 3-4KFT ...S 35KT A5 5KFT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.07 FT (+0.12 FT ABOVE FORECAST TRACE) PRJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 1.71 FT (+0.34 FT ABOVE FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.31 FT AT 155 PM CDT .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........90 90 92 96 98 99 100 100 100 100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............72 72 72 73 74 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 RH..............96 96 96 96 92 91 88 83 83 86 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 40 40 35 35 40 40 40 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...B13 B13 B14 B15 B22 S25 S25 B25 B25 B25 O22 022 020 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.29 29 26 26 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH........................................ .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............89 91 91 92 92 91 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 400 400 600 400 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 120 120 180 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 23 S 25 S 25 S 30 SE 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH.....................CHOPPY......... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 79 79 80 80 RH..............91 87 79 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 500 500 600 500 MIX HGT (M).....120 120 150 150 180 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 24 S 15 S 15 S 15 SE 15 E 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................. && NAMROS TERICK KNEW 020320 MSY NAM ROS GUIDANCE 05/02/2010 0000UTC WKDY SUN MON TUE WED DATE /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 HOUR 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MNMX 75( 74) 81( 81) 73( 73) 80( 80) 72( 68) 78( 78) 67 TEMP 77 75 75 75 80 79 79 77 75 74 74 73 76 78 80 78 75 73 73 73 75 78 77 76 71 68 68 67 DWPT 73 73 73 73 75 75 74 74 73 73 72 72 73 74 73 74 73 72 72 72 73 72 72 71 68 64 64 65 HINX 78 75 75 75 85 83 82 78 75 74 74 73 76 80 85 81 75 73 73 73 75 80 79 77 71 68 68 67 CLDS O1 B1 O1 B1 B1 B1 O1 B2 B1 O1 B1 O1 B1 B5 B> O3 B2 B1 O1 B1 B1 B5 S2 B6 O1 O1 O1 B1 CLHT 15 15 15 15 15 11 13 18 11 13 15 11 11 54 11 27 18 15 15 14 11 54 25 60 13 14 14 10 TMPO 09 06 05 05 14 09 06 06 03 03 06 11 12 06 03 02 02 06 14 09 11 11 08 TTSK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV MC MC OV OV OV OV OV OV MC PC MC OV OV OV MC VSBY P6 06 03 03 P6 P6 P6 06 P6 P6 04 04 06 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 03 03 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 06 OBVS -R BR BR -R BR BR BR BR BR BR TYPF SF SF RF RF RF RF RF AF WDIR 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 18 18 18 19 16 16 15 16 16 15 15 13 11 16 06 06 05 07 07 06 06 WSPD 16 15 16 15 20 17 14 14 10 09 04 01 02 04 07 10 09 05 02 01 01 01 06 09 13 09 07 05 GUST 25 22 20 02 06 07 10 03 02 07 03 09 PP06 32 54 42 27 43 49 54 28 28 53 47 30 11 0 PP12 60 48 65 59 60 55 18 TTPP 00 00 05 14 02 17 01 00 01 00 05 02 00 15 04 01 00 00 10 05 01 08 16 00 00 00 00 00 RQPF 16 11 13 11 13 10 00 15 05 00 00 16 17 11 05 00 00 05 12 16 16 07 12 01 02 00 00 00 TOTR 50 38 21 33 33 35 02 PTYP RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...-00NAM84.MSY 2MTP 77 76 75 75 82 80 79 77 75 74 74 74 76 78 81 79 75 73 73 73 76 79 78 77 71 68 68 68 SKTP 77 76 75 74 87 82 78 76 74 74 73 74 78 80 84 78 75 73 73 74 81 82 78 76 69 68 67 69 BLTP 77 76 75 75 76 79 78 78 75 74 74 73 75 78 79 79 76 73 73 72 73 77 78 78 73 68 68 68 SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS: WKDY SUN MON TUE WED DATE /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 HOUR 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 RINX 85115131 66 65 49 00 86 87 98 84 24 34 32 58 64 00 00 00 12 06 02 00 08 00 00 00 00 SVR% 05 21 RIHL 10 35 57 04 04 11 11 18 10 04 .XXIN RICG 33 48 55 23 24 32 31 36 28 19 KNTS RITN WS WS E0 WS WS WS EFSCL R3SG 74 MPH WMB# WMBS NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL LINX 00 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 00 00 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 00 00 01 03 03 03 02 SHOW -1 -1 00 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 01 00 00 00 00 00 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 00 02 03 04 03 04 04 SWET 42 41 34 40 40 34 33 37 40 39 35 35 33 33 32 30 33 38 37 37 33 30 24 21 20 18 17 15 XX0 KINX 40 39 38 37 38 35 33 38 42 41 38 36 36 36 34 36 38 39 38 37 37 33 36 22 15 18 15 13 TOTL 46 46 45 46 45 45 45 45 48 47 45 44 45 44 44 45 48 50 48 47 47 45 42 40 39 40 40 40 CAPE 84 81 76 74113 95 91 92 59 41 35 22 40 45 65 64 48 33 34 39 36 25 43 27 09 00 00 00 0J/KG PWAT 22 21 22 22 22 22 20 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 19 16 15 14 13 12 X.XIN LCLH 08 05 03 03 03 11 08 05 03 02 02 03 06 13 11 05 02 01 01 01 05 12 11 06 08 06 00FT LFCL 08 15 19 17 04 01 01 01 14 19 16 16 11 02 03 01 03 06 38 32 03 04 01 03 01 01 01117 BULK 15 15 23 19 17 17 11 11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 C/S HLCY 289235260259225 96145154149 92 68 16 07 53 65 52118160155118104 64 64 18 22 52 53 40 M2/S2 ENHI 14 11 12 12 05 08 08 05 02 01 00 00 01 02 02 03 03 03 03 02 01 01 00 00 X.X TINX 05 05 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 04 04 05 03 04 03 03 03 03 02 AVIL 75 74 74 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 71 71 71 71 71 69 68 67 66 67 68 69 69 75 75 73 69 68 KG/M2 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.01/LIX