FNUS74 KLIX 021214 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 714 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG MS RIVER FROM PADUCAH TO JUST W OF KMEM TO KSHV TO KGLS...TO A 1002MB SURFACE LOW OVER W GFLMEX NEAR 26N 94W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH 14 MB OF GRADIENT E OF 94W TO W FL COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOST NORTH GULF BOUYS INDICATING 25KT GUSTS 30-34KT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... /NO CHANGE/ 11Z RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION INDICATED SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO BASE OF INVERSION AT 900 FT...ISOTHERMAL TO WARM NOSE AT 2500FT...SHALLOW LAPSE RATE TO 6000FT THEN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE ABOVE. MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO 1710 FT BY 15Z WITH WARM NOSE STRENGHTENING AT 3350FT. WIND PROFILE...SE 25-40KT SFC TO 1400FT...S 60KT AT 2400FT...SW 30-45 KT TO 26KFT...SW 50-65KT ABOVE 26KFT. .AVIATION... PER MIXED CHANNEL 11-3.9UM IR IMAGERY...LARGE EXPANSE OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W ESTD SCT-BKN 013-015. SOME STRIATION BREAKS INDICATED ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY S OF 28N. AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS OCCURRING FROM TERREBONNE BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG 90W INDICATIVE OF DEEPER MIXING OF COLUMN. ACCAS OR TCU DEVELOPING OVER ERODED DECK GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED ALONG 91W FROM TERREBONNE BAY TO ABOUT 25N. EARLY MORNING HEATING MAY ACCELERATE EROSION OF STRATUS DECK FROM THE S AND W TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN025-030TCU/CB STREAKS BY 15Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021200Z 0212/0312 14020G30KT 5SM BR BKN013 FM021500 15022G32KT 6SM HZ BKN018 FM021800 16020G28KT P6SM SCT025TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 3SM -TSRA BKN017CB BKN025 FM022300 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM RA BR BKN008= KBVE 021200Z 0212/0312 16018G28KT 4SM BR SCT013 TEMPO 0212/0215 BKN013 FM021500 17020G30KT P6SM SCT022TCU FM022200 19018G28KT 5SM HZ VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 0222/0302 2SM +TSRA BR BKN022CB FM030300 20012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008= KHSA 021200Z 0212/0312 17015G22KT P6SM OVC016 TEMPO 0212/0215 -RA FM021500 17015G25KT P6SM SCT015 BKN025 FM021800 18018G30KT 6SM HZ SCT028TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB40KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC040 FM022200 17012KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC012CB TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 650 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS RAPIDLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE FLORIDA PARISHES THROUGH THE GREATER BTR AREA...MOVING NE 45KT. NO RETURNS OVER THE GLFMEX AND NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THE GLFMEX. TMSY VWP INDICATES S 35-40KT 1-3KFT...S 50-55KT 3-6KFT...SSW 40KT AOA 7KFT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.77 FT (+0.19 FT ABOVE FORECAST TRACE) PRJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 2.28 FT (0.00 FT ABOVE FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.31 FT AT 155 PM CDT .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........67 80 93 99 100 100 100 100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............72 73 74 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 RH..............100 99 94 91 87 83 83 86 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 35 35 40 40 40 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIG (FT-AGL)....B13 B14 B14 B15 S18 S18 S22 S22 S25 B22 B22 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.26 26 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH................................. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............89 91 91 92 92 91 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 400 400 600 400 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 120 120 180 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 23 S 25 S 25 S 30 SE 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH.....................CHOPPY........ .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 79 79 80 80 RH..............91 87 79 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 500 500 600 500 MIX HGT (M).....120 120 150 150 180 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 24 S 15 S 15 S 15 SE 15 E 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.03/LIX