FNUS74 KLIX 021411 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 911 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM MO BOOTHEEL TO NEAR KGLS TO A 1004MB SURFACE LOW OVER W GLFMEX NEAR 26N 94W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH 12MB GRADIENT FROM 94W TO W FL COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW 25-30 KT OVER N-CNTRL GLFMEX. LARGE LINEAR MCS OVER TN/KY AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND INTO SRN MS AND LA. VERY RICH MOISTURE PLUME WITH UPPER 70F DEWPOINTS OVER IMPACT AREA AND NEARBY COAST. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...TORNADO WATCH #133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR LIX CWA ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... 12Z KLIX SHOWS A HIGH P.W. 2.14 INCHES...K INDEX 40 AND SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX -4. CAPE 2441 J/KG AND HELICITY 414 M2/S2...BRN 42.4 ALL INDICATIVE OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SATURATED LIFT FROM SFC TO 6700FT...THEN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE ABOVE WITH A SMALL WARM LAYER AROUND 500MB. DIURNAL LAPSE RATE OF 355K WITH TX=82F. S WINDS 40 KT OFF SFC-4KFT...SW 45-55 KT TO 18KFT...SW 50-70KT ABV 18KFT. .AVIATION... LARGE AREA OF CB EXPLODING OVER INTERIOR SE LA FROM LK PONTCHARTRAIN N THROUGH THE FLORIDA PARISHES INTO ADJACENT MS COUNTIES. A LARGE BAND OF TCU AND DEVELOPING CB EXTENDS FROM KMSY...THRU PORT FOURCHON INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX NEAR 27.7N 91W. RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOTED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH TORRENTIAL RAINALL TO LOWER VSBY TO LIFR AT TIMES DURING RAFL. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021400Z 0214/0314 14020G30KT 5SM BR BKN013 TEMPO 0214/0216 2SM SHRA BR OVC008 FM021600 16020G28KT P6SM SCT025TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN008 OVC017CB FM022300 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM RA BR BKN008= KBVE 021400Z 0214/0314 16018G28KT 4SM HZ BKN018 FM021500 17020G30KT P6SM SCT022TCU FM022200 19018G28KT 5SM HZ VCSH BKN025CB TEMPO 0222/0302 VRB35KT 1SM +TSRA BR BKN015CB FM030300 20012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008= KHSA 021400Z 0214/0314 17015G22KT P6SM OVC016 TEMPO 0214/0216 VRB35KT TSRA BKN015CB FM021600 17015G25KT P6SM SCT015 BKN025 FM021800 18018G30KT 6SM HZ SCT028TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB40KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC040 FM022200 17012KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC012CB TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 850 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED LARGE CLUSTER OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY TSTMS MOVING NE 45KT ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST FL PARISHES OF LA INTO PEARL RIVER CO MS. THESE APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER THAT IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE HOUR AS FOCUS ALONG A SHEAR AXIS IGNITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF PORT FOURCHON TO ABOUT 27.8N 90.6W. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.02 FT (+0.17 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; +0.12 OVER PHT) PRJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 2.61 FT (-0.10 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.31 FT AT 155 PM CDT .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........93 99 100 100 100 100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 RH..............91 91 87 83 83 86 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.40 35 40 40 40 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...S13 S15 S18 S22 S22 S25 S25 B25 B25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 28 28 28 28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH........................ .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............89 91 91 92 92 91 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 400 400 600 400 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 120 120 180 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 23 S 25 S 25 S 30 SE 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH...................CHOPPY......... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 79 79 80 80 RH..............91 87 79 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 500 500 600 500 MIX HGT (M).....120 120 150 150 180 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 24 S 15 S 15 S 15 SE 15 E 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................ .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.05/LIX