FNUS74 KLIX 021613 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STARTING FORWARD PROGRESS NEAR KMEM TO NEAR KMLU TO KBPT TO W GULF NEAR 25N 94W. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW 25-30 KT OVER N-CNTRL GLFMEX. LARGE LINEAR MCS OVER TN/KY AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND INTO SRN MS AND LA. VERY RICH MOISTURE PLUME WITH UPPER 70F DEWPOINTS OVER IMPACT AREA AND NEARBY COAST. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...TORNADO WATCH #133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR LIX CWA ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION SHOWS SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO 2500FT. SSW 50KT INDICATED AT 2500FT TO PERSIST THRU 21Z. WIND SHEAR 20-45 KT SFC TO 2KFT THROUGH 21Z. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. .AVIATION... EXPANSIVE CEILING OF BKN-OVC 013-016 OVER LAND AREAS AND OVER BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS. BAND OF TCU/CB OVER BARATARIA BAY TO CENTRAL GLFMEX DRIFTING SLOWLY E. NO CHANGES IN CIGS OVER LAND. MARINE AREA APPEARS TO BE CLR-FEW 022-025 OUTSIDE THE SOUNDS WITH AN INVASION OF CU FIELD ESTD SCT-BKN025 ADVANCING FROM S OF 28N. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021600Z 0216/0316 15022G32KT 5SM HZ OVC013 FM021700 16020G28KT P6SM BKN025TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN008 OVC017CB FM022300 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM RA BR BKN008= KBVE 021600Z 0216/0316 17018G25KT 5SM HZ SCT013 SCT025 TEMPO 0217/0218 -SHRA BKN022CB FM022200 19018G28KT 5SM HZ VCSH BKN025CB TEMPO 0222/0302 VRB35KT 1SM +TSRA BR BKN015CB FM030300 20012KT 4SM RA BR BKN008= KHSA 021600Z 0216/0316 18015G22KT P6SM OVC016 TEMPO 0216/0218 -SHRA BKN015TCU FM021800 18018G30KT 6SM HZ SCT028TCU TEMPO 0218/0222 VRB40KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC040 FM022200 17012KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC012CB TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AM...VFR CAVOK PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 1050 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WAVELAND...TO NEAR PORT SULPHUR...SW TO ABOUT 28.5N 90.5W...CELL MOVEMENT NNE 38KT. LINE MOVING E 16KT...ETA SPOT LOCATION 2015Z. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.26 FT (+0.29 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; +0.36 OVER PHT) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 3.18 FT (+0.13 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.31 FT AT 155 PM CDT .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 76 76 76 76 76 76 RH..............87 83 83 86 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 18 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 40 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...B16 B18 S22 S22 B25 B25 S22 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 28 28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............9 9 8 8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH................. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............89 91 91 92 92 91 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 400 400 600 400 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 120 120 180 120 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 23 S 25 S 25 S 30 SE 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH....................CHOPPY.......... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 79 79 80 80 RH..............91 87 79 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 500 500 600 500 MIX HGT (M).....120 120 150 150 180 150 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 24 S 15 S 15 S 15 SE 15 E 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.07/LIX