FNUS74 KLIX 021817 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 117 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT NOW DEMARKED BY A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NEAR KGWO..KESF...W OF KLCH TO 90 E KBRO...MOVING E 13KT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW 25-30 KT CONTINUES OVER N-CNTRL GLFMEX BUT SOME RELAXATION DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL E OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER EXTREME SE LA AND COASTAL MS. LARGE CIRCULAR MCS OVER CENTRAL MS MOVING TOWARDS LARGE LINEAR MCS OVER TN/KY. VERY RICH MOISTURE PLUME WITH UPPER 70F DEWPOINTS OVER IMPACT AREA AND NEARBY COAST. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...TORNADO WATCH #133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR LIX CWA ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... 17Z RUC13 SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION NOW SHOWS SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER TO 1200FT LOWERING TO AROUND 800 FT BY 19Z PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING CONVECTION. STRONG WINDS PREVIOUSLY AT 2KFT NO LONGER INDICATED ON LATEST RUN. WARM NOSE TO 2400FT TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z. LATEST RUN NOT AS MOIST LOOKING AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS TURN MORE SW 30-50KT ABOVE 3500FT AT 00Z BUT MARINE LAYER MAINTAINS SSE FLOW BELOW INVERSION AT 800FT. NOTE: 18Z SPECIAL RELEASE SOUNDING AT KLIX FOR SVR WX ASSESSMENT. .AVIATION... ADVANCEMENT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING E 15 KT ACROSS LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH WITH SCT-BKN 022-025CB OVER BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DISRUPT MARINE LAYER TO IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS FROM KBVE TO SPOT LOCATION. MEANWHILE...LAND AREAS REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC 015-020 WITH CB/TCU BASED 025-028 OVERRIDING THIS DECK. AFTER CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS MAY RETURN AND LOWER TO LOW END MVFR TO HIGH END IFR /008-012/ FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON OVER OPERATIONS AREA. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021800Z 0218/0318 18012KT 2SM DZ BR OVC007 FM021930 18015KT 5SM HZ SCT025 FM030000 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031200 25008KT 4SM BR SCT008 BKN015 FM031500 30005KT P6SM SCT025= KBVE 021800Z 0218/0318 18018G25KT 3SM -SHRA OVC013 FM022000 19015KT 5SM HZ VCSH SCT013 BKN025CU FM030300 20012KT 4SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031400 27008KT 6SM -RA BR BKN011= KHSA 021800Z 0218/0318 18015G22KT 4SM -RA BR OVC012 FM022100 19012KT 3SM BR OVC012 TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008 FM031400 25005KT 3SM -RA OVC011= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 1250 PM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KPQL TO NEAR KBVE TO GLFMEX NEAR 28.3N 90.3W...CELL MOVEMENT NNE 37KT. LINE SLOWING DOWN TO E 5KT...ETA SPOT LOCATION INDETERMINANT. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DENOTES THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FROM KMLU TO VERMILION...MOVING E 15KT. OTHER LIGHTER REFLECTIVITY PRE-FRONTAL BANDS DETECTED NEAR KBTR TO KLFT LIKELY TO ACTIVATE AT 82-83F SFC TEMPS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.14 FT (+0.13 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; +0.24 OVER PHT) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 3.66 FT (-0.06 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; -0.07 UNDER PHT) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.73 FT AT 142 PM CDT .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 76 76 76 76 RH..............83 86 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..18 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.40 35 35 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...B14 S25 B14 B08 B08 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............8 8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......ROUGH............... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............89 91 91 92 92 91 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 15 SE 14 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 500 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 150 150 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 24 S 25 S 25 S 24 S 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 60 60 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH.....................CHOPPY....... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 79 79 80 80 RH..............91 87 79 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 700 700 400 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 210 210 120 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 10 S 15 S 15 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. && NAMROS TERICK KNEW 021520 MSY NAM ROS GUIDANCE 05/02/2010 1200UTC WKDY SUN MON TUE WED DATE /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MXMN 84( 84) 72( 72) 83( 83) 75( 71) 78( 78) 71( 71) 80 TEMP 79 82 84 78 75 74 74 72 78 82 83 81 78 76 75 75 75 73 77 77 73 71 71 71 72 73 80 78 DWPT 73 74 75 74 73 73 73 72 69 64 68 72 74 75 74 74 74 70 70 71 70 71 70 70 70 71 73 70 HINX 83 87 92 81 75 74 74 72 80 84 86 86 80 76 75 75 75 73 78 79 73 71 71 71 72 73 84 81 CLDS B5 B> B2 B2 B1 O2 B1 S< O5 O6 O5 B6 O6 B2 B2 B1 O1 B1 O3 CL S< O1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 O2 CLHT 48 11 22 18 11 17 11 01 54 62 53 64 60 17 22 11 11 11 34 NA 08 15 11 15 14 11 16 20 TMPO 16 20 11 05 03 03 49 49 44 11 03 02 02 03 08 16 06 03 02 03 06 06 TTSK MC MC MC MC OV OV OV PC OV OV OV MC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL PC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV VSBY P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 04 03 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 04 03 03 04 06 P6 P6 P6 03 03 03 06 06 P6 P6 OBVS BR BR BR BR BR BR -R BR BR BR BR BR TYPF RF RF RF RF RF RF AF AF AF RF RF WDIR 18 18 19 18 18 21 26 34 03 04 06 10 13 11 13 04 04 05 06 09 09 08 07 08 06 06 14 18 WSPD 20 21 20 15 09 06 01 02 08 09 06 06 02 01 01 01 04 13 09 11 08 08 07 07 03 01 01 06 GUST 25 24 22 02 11 10 09 02 07 18 14 07 05 04 PP06 49 40 35 44 33 33 56 65 61 25 13 35 46 17 PP12 59 59 38 74 61 35 46 TTPP 08 02 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 02 06 06 06 05 02 00 00 00 00 02 04 02 06 00 RQPF 12 13 TR 00 00 TR 00 TR 03 02 02 06 13 21 16 13 15 05 05 TR 00 TR 00 TR 00 03 06 00 TOTR 25 00 13 62 25 00 09 PTYP RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...-12NAM84.MSY 2MTP 80 83 86 79 75 75 74 73 80 85 84 82 78 76 75 75 75 73 78 78 72 71 71 71 73 74 82 79 SKTP 82 86 92 78 75 75 74 74 89 94 87 81 77 75 75 75 76 73 81 77 70 71 71 71 74 76 91 79 BLTP 78 81 84 81 75 75 74 73 76 81 83 82 79 76 75 75 75 74 74 78 74 71 71 71 71 73 75 79 SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS: WKDY SUN MON TUE WED DATE /MAY 2 /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 RINX 92 81 26 81 85 87 64 00 00 00 00 00 02 03 30 71 66 29105 48 40 53 56 04 11 47 11153 SVR% 43 RIHL 14 08 08 10 11 04 05 04 24 103 .XXIN RICG 39 34 31 31 30 16 19 16 40 62 KNTS RITN WS WS WS WS E1 EFSCL R3SG 105 MPH WMB# WMBS NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL LINX -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 00 00 01 03 00 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 00 00 01 00 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 SHOW -1 -1 01 02 01 -1 00 02 01 00 -1 00 -1 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 00 03 03 00 00 -2 -2 00 03 SWET 36 35 31 30 31 35 32 25 25 26 26 24 25 31 35 36 34 27 26 20 17 17 20 21 23 22 22 15 XX0 KINX 36 38 34 35 37 40 39 34 30 32 35 35 35 35 26 30 32 25 22 22 20 18 15 15 20 17 14 03 TOTL 45 45 43 43 44 46 44 41 42 43 46 45 48 51 53 53 52 49 49 44 41 41 45 46 49 49 47 43 CAPE 63102170104 63 44 45 02 00 00 03 61 70 81 88 92 85 67 29 52 23 28 46 66 76 71158171 0J/KG PWAT 22 22 20 21 21 21 21 19 17 16 17 18 18 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 X.XIN LCLH 12 18 18 03 03 02 01 05 29 36 22 02 01 01 02 03 16 05 02 01 02 03 05 05 14 00FT LFCL 05 01 01 01 16 21 24 58 48 24 02 01 02 03 12 47 19 03 06 01 06 19 42 22 10 09 01 01 BULK 19 21 32 13 17 21 38 40 16 29 73177290582126 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 C/S HLCY 255128 93 83110 68 00 38 30 00 35 48 81 77 72 56 70111 57 -1 02 67 71 77 45 06-11 10 M2/S2 ENHI 07 07 04 04 02 00 00 02 04 04 04 03 03 05 00 00 01 02 03 02 00 01 X.X TINX 04 05 05 04 04 05 04 04 03 03 04 05 05 06 05 05 05 04 03 04 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 AVIL 72 72 73 72 72 71 72 72 72 72 70 70 69 68 67 65 65 65 65 71 72 70 69 68 66 66 66 65 KG/M2 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.09/LIX