FNUS74 KLIX 021917 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 217 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT FROM W OF KGWO...KESF...KLCH TO 105E KBRO...MOVING E 13KT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW 20-25 KT CONTINUES OVER N-CNTRL GLFMEX GENERALLY E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL E OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER EXTREME SE LA AND COASTAL MS. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM KPQL TO KBVE WITH LGT TO MDT RAFL TRAINING ALONG THE BAND. VERY RICH MOISTURE PLUME WITH UPPER 70F DEWPOINTS OVER IMPACT AREA AND NEARBY COAST. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...TORNADO WATCH #133 WAS CANCELLED FOR LA PORTION OF LIX CWA AT 130 PM. ...TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR MS COUNTIES. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS ENTIRE LIX CWA INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS MS COUNTIES OF LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... 18Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 4800FT WITH DRYING ABOVE 850MB...MUCH DRIER ABOVE 600MB. MODEST CAPES WITH SHALLOW LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT. P.W. VALUE DOWN TO 1.95 INCHES. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SSW TO SW 25KT AT SFC TO 80 KT AT 45KFT. .AVIATION... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER MARINE LAYER DISRUPTION LOW BASED CEILINGS NEAR SHOWERS. THE BAND HAS STOPPED EWD PROGRESS BUT MVFR CIGS PERSIST JUST NORTH OF KBVE INLAND. CONVECTIVE SPREAD IN MIDLEVELS PRODUCING CEILINGS AROUND BKN-OVC 040-050 OVER THE SOUNDS AND INVADING THE SPOT LOCATION PROXIMITY. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 021900Z 0219/0319 18012KT 2SM DZ BR OVC007 FM022000 18015KT 5SM HZ SCT008 BKN025 FM030000 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031200 25008KT 4SM BR SCT008 BKN015 FM031500 30005KT P6SM SCT025= KBVE 021900Z 0219/0319 18018G25KT 5SM VCSH SCT013TCU OVC045 FM022000 19015KT 5SM HZ VCSH SCT013 BKN025CU FM030300 20012KT 4SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031400 27008KT 6SM -RA BR BKN011= KHSA 021900Z 0219/0319 18012G20KT P6SM OVC015 FM022100 19012KT 3SM BR OVC012 TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008 FM031400 25005KT 3SM -RA OVC011= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 150 PM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ON A DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KPQL TO NEAR KBVE TO GLFMEX NEAR 28.3N 90.3W...CELL MOVEMENT NNE 37KT. LINE MOVEMENT STATIONARY. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. ANOTHER SPOTTY AND DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS DENOTES THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FROM KMLU TO VERMILION...MOVING E 15KT. OTHER LIGHTER REFLECTIVITY PRE-FRONTAL BANDS DETECTED OVER SE LA ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ANY DEEP CONVECTION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.99 FT (0.00 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; FALLING OFF PEAK) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.90 FT AT 1054 AM CDT WYCM6 3.70 FT (-0.01 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; -0.03 UNDER PHT) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 3.73 FT AT 142 PM CDT .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 99 99 97 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 73 73 73 RH..............97 97 97 97 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 17 17 20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...O40 B22 B22 F22 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 SEAS............8 8 8 8 SEA STATE.......ROUGH.......... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........94 94 95 94 94 95 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............73 73 74 74 74 74 RH..............97 97 97 99 99 97 20 FT WIND......S 16 S 15 S 14 S 14 S 13 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 500 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 150 150 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 24 S 25 S 25 S 24 S 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............8 7 7 7 5 5 SEA STATE.......ROUGH..................CHOPPY.......... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 98 98 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 74 74 74 74 75 RH..............97 97 100 99 99 94 20 FT WIND......S 11 S 11 S 10 S 10 S 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 700 700 400 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 210 210 120 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 10 S 15 S 15 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................... .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.10/LIX