FNUS74 KLIX 022023 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 323 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT FROM KGWO...SIMMESPORT...KLFT...TO BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING E 19KT. BAND OF MARINE LAYER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM KPQL TO KBVE WITH MDT TO HVY RAFL TRAINING ALONG THE BAND. VERY RICH MOISTURE PLUME WITH UPPER 70F DEWPOINTS OVER IMPACT AREA AND NEARBY COAST. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL LAKES TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HANCOCK COUNTY TIL 7 PM TODAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. ...SPC DAY 1 DOWNGRADED TO GENERAL TSRA OVER LIX CWA TONIGHT. ...SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE TSTMS JACKSON CO MS IN LIX CWA INCLUDING GLFMEX WATERS EAST OF KGPT. GENERAL TSTMS REMAINDER OF LIX CWA. .SOUNDING... /NO CHANGE/ 18Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 4800FT WITH DRYING ABOVE 850MB...MUCH DRIER ABOVE 600MB. MODEST CAPES WITH SHALLOW LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT. P.W. VALUE DOWN TO 1.95 INCHES. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SSW TO SW 25KT AT SFC TO 80 KT AT 45KFT. .AVIATION... BAND OF CONVECTION ENHANCING IN INTENSITY FROM KGPT TO 10 N KBVE...SSW TO GLFMEX 27.7N 91.0W. CONVECTIVE BASES BKN025 BKN040CB NEAR AND ALONG THE LINE. INCREASING COVERAGE SHRA BKN020TCU FROM KBVE SOUTH TO PSTL1 AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. MARINE AREA E OF MS RIVER...VSBY 5-6 HZ BASES FEW-SCT025-030 THROUGH 03/00Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 022000Z 0220/0320 18012KT 2SM BR OVC007 FM030000 18015KT 5SM -SHRA BKN012 FM030300 20010KT 3SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031200 25008KT 4SM BR SCT008 BKN015 FM031500 30005KT P6SM SCT025= KBVE 022000Z 0220/0320 18018G25KT 5SM HZ VCSH OVC042TCU FM030300 20012KT 4SM -RA BR BKN008 FM031400 27008KT 6SM -RA BR BKN011= KHSA 022000Z 0220/0320 18012G23KT P6SM OVC015 FM022100 19012KT 3SM BR OVC012 TEMPO 0300/0304 1SM +SHRA OVC008 FM031400 25005KT 3SM -RA OVC011= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...IFR CIGS W/TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. .RADAR... AT 300 PM CDT...KLIX INDICATED AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KBIX TO 10 N KBVE...CELL MOVEMENT NNE 35KT. LINE MOVEMENT DRIFT NORTH BUT EXPANDING EAST. LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER MS SOUND AND LOWER BRETON SOUND MOVING NNE. LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX 50NM SSW PORT FOURCHON MOVING NNE. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.81 FT (0.00 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; FALLING OFF PEAK) WYCM6 3.38 FT (-0.35 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; FALLING OFF PEAK) .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 73 73 RH..............97 97 97 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 18 20 FT WIND GUST.40 35 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 CIG (FT-AGL)....O40 B25 B25 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 24 24 TRANS SPD (M/S).13 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 SEAS............8 8 8 SEA STATE.......ROUGH...... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............73 73 74 74 74 74 RH..............97 97 97 99 99 97 20 FT WIND......S 17 S 16 S 14 S 14 S 14 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 500 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 150 150 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 24 S 25 S 25 S 24 S 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............8 8 8 8 6 6 SEA STATE.......ROUGH......................CHOPPY....... .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 74 74 74 74 75 RH..............97 97 100 99 99 94 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 11 S 10 S 10 S 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 700 700 400 500 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 210 210 120 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 10 S 15 S 15 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............6 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100502.DEEPW.11/LIX