FNUS72 KJAX 032039
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KERR ISLAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1635 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN STORE FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1600 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 3 TO
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........24     27     27     46     53     53
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............89     84     80     78     76     74
RH..............50     60     71     78     85     90
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 10  SW 8   SW 5   SW 2   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10            5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5400   1600   1600   1000   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17  W 15   W 15   W 8    W 3    W 3
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.74     32     32     5      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 13 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO
                    22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....76.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LVORI...............MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........61     55     55     54     58     58
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............73     74     81     85     87     87
RH..............93     89     68     57     51     51
20 FT WIND......SW 3   S 6    SW 9   SW 13  SW 15  SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     20     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1800   1800   3700   5700   5700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6   S 12   S 12   SW 18  SW 22  SW 22
LVORI...........M      M      M      M      M      M
DISPERSION INDX.3      8      13     66     71     71
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     20     20     50     50
LAL.............1      2      2      2      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSON
REQUESTED BY...MIKE WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100503.KERRI.01/JAX