FNUS72 KJAX 040939
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KERR ISLAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
539 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1635 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS AN UPDATE TO A PREVIOUS FORECAST REQUEST.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES EACH DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS MAY NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6000 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 17 TO 24
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....79.


TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........61     50     57     57     53     57
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     78     85     88     90     89
RH..............99     83     67     54     49     50
20 FT WIND......S 0    S 5    SW 12  SW 15  SW 14  W 12
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     20     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1800   3900   3900   6000   5900
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5   S 8    SW 17  SW 17  SW 24  W 20
DISPERSION INDX.2      18     47     47     80     64
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     20     20     50     50
LAL.............1      2      2      2      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...MIKE WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100503.KERRI.01/JAX