FNUS74 KLIX 031015 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 515 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT FROM KBHM...KPIB...KPTN WITH MID 70S DEWPOINT SE OF FRONTAL ZONE. LOW CLOUDS...STEAM AND RADIATIONAL FOG REPORTED AT MOST S MS/SE LA LAND SITES. CLOUD CLEARING LINE NOTED FROM KJAN-10W KBTR-KLFT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TIL 7 AM TODAY. ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS LIX CWA E OF LINE FM KASD-GISL1 AND COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING OPERATIONS AREA. ...SPC DAY 2 GENERAL TSTMS E OF LINE FM BOGL1-KBVE INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS E OF MS RIVER/OPERATIONS AREA. .SOUNDING... 09Z RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION INDICATES MARINE LAYER INVERSION SURFACE TO 2100FT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 13Z. SHALLOW AND MODERATELY MOIST LAPSE RATE ABOVE MARINE LAYER THROUGH 17Z. WIND PROFILE SE 15KT OFF SURFACE...S 35KT 870FT...SW 20-45KT TO 23KFT...50-55KT ABV 23KFT. .NEARBY GULF AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W KIPN 030915Z AUTO 17016KT 2SM BR 25/24 A2988 RMK A01 KMYT 030920Z AUTO 19018KT 1 1/4SM BR BKN011 BKN034 25/24 A2985 RMK A01 KSPR 030920Z AUTO 25003KT M1/4SM FG BKN003 23/23 A2984 RMK A01 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CIGS WITH IFR-MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL SE LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 60NM. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN PAST FEW HOURS TREND AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 031000Z 0310/0410 23003KT 2SM DZ BR OVC003 FM031430 06004KT P6SM BKN025 FM032000 10005KT P6SM SCT050 SCT250 FM040200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= KBVE 031000Z 0310/0410 19010KT 4SM BR FEW013 OVC025 TEMPO 0310/0314 BKN013 OVC025 FM031500 20008KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040 FM032000 07005KT P6SM SCT025= KHSA 031000Z 0310/0410 00000KT 5SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC070 FM031400 20005KT P6SM FEW011 BKN070 FM032000 VRB03KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250 FM040200 00000KT 6SM BR SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR CAVOK. MODERATE S WIND. .RADAR... AT 455 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A PERSISTENT BROKEN BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM 15 N KMOB...KGPT...5 S KNBG. LINE MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. CELL MOVEMENT NE 30KT. ISOLATED LIGHT RETURNS OVER GULF OUTSIDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER SOUNDS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED OVER GLFMEX. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 0.87 FT (-0.05 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.77 FT AT 1110 AM CDT) WYCM6 1.05 FT (+0.22 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 2.75 FT AT 240 PM CDT) .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 96 91 91 86 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............72 72 74 76 78 79 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 RH..............100 100 100 93 88 83 80 79 79 77 77 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...O13 O13 O13 B13 O25 B25 S25 S25 S40 S50 S50 S50 S50 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 21 21 21 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......ROUGH....CHOPPY.................................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........77 73 73 73 58 58 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 76 74 73 72 72 RH..............81 89 97 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SW 7 SW 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....700 400 500 500 500 500 MIX HGT (M).....210 120 150 150 150 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 15 S 15 S 16 S 16 S 20 S 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY............................... .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 58 49 35 29 26 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 73 77 78 79 79 RH..............100 100 90 85 81 78 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 5 SW 5 E 5 NE 5 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....500 600 800 800 900 1000 MIX HGT (M).....150 180 240 240 270 300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 SW 12 SW 8 SW 8 SW 7 W 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP............................ .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. && NAMROS TERICK KNEW 030320 MSY NAM ROS GUIDANCE 05/03/2010 0000UTC WKDY MON TUE WED THU DATE /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 /MAY 6 HOUR 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MNMX 74( 74) 85( 85) 75( 75) 87( 87) 73( 71) 84( 84) 68 TEMP 75 75 74 74 75 81 85 82 77 75 75 75 77 84 87 85 80 75 73 73 80 83 84 80 73 70 68 68 DWPT 73 73 73 73 73 74 73 76 74 74 74 73 67 64 61 64 67 68 68 69 71 71 71 70 71 68 68 68 HINX 75 75 74 74 75 86 92 88 78 75 75 75 79 86 87 86 83 75 73 73 83 88 89 84 73 70 68 68 CLDS O1 B1 B2 O1 S< S1 O3 B4 B3 O1 O1 O3 O7 CL CL CL CL CL B4 CL CL S2 CL S2 B2 B1 O1 O1 CLHT 15 15 15 15 02 11 32 38 33 15 11 32 69 NA NA NA NA NA 44 NA NA 22 NA 24 16 13 15 15 TMPO 05 06 05 03 29 14 08 05 03 06 66 40 06 05 02 02 TTSK OV OV OV OV MC PC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL CL CL CL OV CL CL PC CL PC MC MC OV OV VSBY 03 03 05 04 06 P6 P6 P6 03 05 04 04 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 02 P6 P6 P6 P6 04 03 03 03 OBVS BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR HZ BR BR BR BR TYPF SF SF RF RF RF SF RF RF AF RF AF AF RF RF WDIR 17 18 20 07 02 03 04 12 19 22 31 01 02 05 05 04 12 17 06 04 05 08 10 13 18 17 16 16 WSPD 11 06 03 00 02 06 06 04 06 01 01 08 07 08 06 01 01 01 00 02 07 09 09 08 07 06 03 02 GUST 01 08 07 02 02 15 09 01 08 11 PP06 49 38 33 21 23 45 6 4 0 0 4 8 0 5 PP12 62 34 45 6 0 8 5 TTPP 05 03 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 RQPF 13 06 00 TR 10 00 TR 00 00 TR 00 04 TR 00 TR 00 00 00 00 00 00 TR 00 TR 00 00 TR 00 TOTR 19 10 04 00 00 00 00 PTYP RA RA RA RA RA RA RA INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...-00NAM84.MSY 2MTP 75 75 74 74 76 83 87 82 77 75 75 75 79 87 89 85 79 73 72 73 82 86 86 81 73 70 69 69 SKTP 75 74 74 75 79 91 95 82 77 75 75 75 82 97 95 82 69 67 66 73 92 97 94 80 72 71 70 70 BLTP 76 75 75 74 75 80 84 84 78 75 75 75 76 82 86 86 82 78 75 74 78 82 84 82 75 71 68 68 SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS: WKDY MON TUE WED THU DATE /MAY 3 /MAY 4 /MAY 5 /MAY 6 HOUR 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 RINX 103113 97 23 00 11 20 45 55 44 34 18 00 00 00 08 11 13 10 37 37 33 41 54164169167 00 SVR% 03 RIHL 22 31 18 .XXIN RICG 39 43 34 KNTS RITN WS WS WS EFSCL R3SG MPH WMB# WMBS NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL LINX -3 -2 -2 -1 00 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 01 04 03 02 01 00 00 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 00 00 00 SHOW -1 -1 00 01 01 02 00 -2 -2 00 -1 -1 00 07 06 05 05 02 00 00 02 01 01 01 02 03 05 05 SWET 38 36 31 25 23 34 32 28 28 25 25 26 27 18 16 15 14 19 22 22 16 17 17 16 16 12 09 10 XX0 KINX 40 40 39 33 29 23 17 15 11 15 20 28 30 24 21 17 16 08 13 15 13 11 11 11 09 04 04 03 TOTL 47 47 45 43 42 42 45 48 48 46 47 47 45 36 37 39 39 42 46 46 44 45 45 45 45 44 42 41 CAPE 76 76 69 50 20 67102192154 66 67 76 06 07 07 09 44 48 40 61109165182161113 35 01 00 0J/KG PWAT 22 23 21 18 18 16 16 18 17 16 16 17 16 13 11 10 11 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 X.XIN LCLH 03 05 03 02 03 22 13 06 02 02 02 11 29 54 44 29 16 08 12 24 29 24 05 03 01 01 00FT LFCL 18 16 25 12 02 02 01 01 03 09 12 10 04 02 02 01 02 02 04 05 02 01 01 02 03 32 05 14 BULK 14 14 12 36 24 16 25 33 30 83159170109 65 40 28 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 C/S HLCY 159 87 84 17 36 86 74104 31 05 11 10-35-62-34 00 20 20 04 -5 00 04 -1-39-71-43-17 -1 M2/S2 ENHI 06 04 03 00 00 03 04 08 03 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 X.X TINX 05 05 04 04 04 04 05 06 05 04 04 04 04 04 03 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 02 02 02 AVIL 71 70 71 71 72 71 71 70 69 69 66 66 67 72 72 70 69 69 68 66 65 65 65 64 64 63 63 62 KG/M2 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100503.DEEPW.01/LIX