FNUS74 KLIX 031207 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 707 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT FROM KHSA...KGAO...10W PORT FOURCHON...MOVING SE 9KT. MID 70S DEWPOINTS SE OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL MS AND EXTREME SE LA. UNDER TRAILING CLOUD DECK...DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT FALL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND CLEARING LINE. CLOUD CLEARING LINE KMCB-KBTR-E OF MARSH ISLAND MOVING SE 9KT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS LIX CWA E OF LINE FM KASD-GISL1 AND COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING OPERATIONS AREA. ...SPC DAY 2 GENERAL TSTMS E OF LINE FM BOGL1-KBVE INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS E OF MS RIVER/OPERATIONS AREA. .SOUNDING... 10Z RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR SPOT LOCATION INDICATES MARINE LAYER INVERSION SURFACE TO 2500FT MIXING OUT BY 16Z WITH PROFILE DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 8500FT BY 16Z. WIND PROFILE SE 15KT OFF SURFACE...S 35KT 900FT...SW 25-45KT TO 24KFT...50-55KT ABV 24KFT. .NEARBY GULF AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W KIPN 031135Z AUTO 17016KT 2SM BR 25/24 A2991 KMYT 031140Z AUTO 20015KT 1 1/4SM BR OVC009 25/24 A2989 KSPR 031140Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM FG OVC047 23/23 A2987 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CIGS WITH IFR-MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL SE LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 60NM. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN PAST FEW HOURS TREND AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z OVER LAND AREAS THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 15Z. MARINE AREAS...SLOW LIFT OF CEILING BASE THROUGH 15Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 031200Z 0312/0412 23003KT 2SM DZ BR SCT008 OVC080 FM031430 06004KT P6SM SCT025 BKN080 FM031600 10005KT P6SM SCT050 SCT250 FM040200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= KBVE 031200Z 0312/0412 19010KT 4SM -RA BR BKN007 OVC024 TEMPO 0312/0315 SCT007 OVC025 FM031500 20008KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040 FM032000 07005KT P6SM SCT025= KHSA 031200Z 0312/0412 00000KT 5SM BR SCT007 BKN010 OVC070 FM031430 20005KT P6SM FEW011 BKN070 FM032000 VRB03KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250 FM040200 00000KT 6SM BR SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR CAVOK. MODERATE S WIND. .RADAR... AT 655 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH 14 STRIKES/5MIN LIGHTNING RATE MOVING NE 22KT ACROSS BRETON SOUND JUST INSIDE THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. ESTIMATED GUSTS 28KT AND VSBY AOB 1SM +RA THIS CELL. OTHERWISE...OVERALL COVERAGE IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN HIGH RETURNS BUT INCREASING IN 30DBZ OR LOWER RETURNS OVER THE N GLFMEX AND ADJACENT LA/MS COASTAL INLAND AREAS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.20 FT (0.00 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.77 FT AT 1110 AM CDT) WYCM6 1.30 FT (+0.03 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 2.75 FT AT 240 PM CDT) .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 96 91 91 86 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............74 76 78 79 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 RH..............100 93 88 83 80 79 79 77 77 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...O13 O15 O18 B22 B25 S25 S25 S40 S50 S70 S70 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 18 14 14 14 10 10 10 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........77 73 73 73 58 58 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 76 74 73 72 72 RH..............81 89 97 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SW 7 SW 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 600 600 700 600 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 180 180 210 180 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 12 S 12 S 12 S 10 S 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................... .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 58 49 35 29 26 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 73 77 78 79 79 RH..............100 100 90 85 81 78 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 5 SW 5 E 5 NE 5 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....600 700 900 900 800 500 MIX HGT (M).....180 210 270 270 240 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 W 7 W 7 NW 9 N 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP............................ .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100503.DEEPW.03/LIX