FNUS74 KLIX 031311 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 811 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT FROM KGPT..GISL1...MOVING SE 9KT. MID 70S DEWPOINTS SE OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL SE MS AND EXTREME SE LA. UNDER TRAILING CLOUD DECK...DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT FALL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND CLEARING LINE. CLOUD CLEARING LINE KMCB-KBTR-E OF MARSH ISLAND MOVING HAS BECOME STATIONARY BUT LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE E AND SE 9KT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS LIX CWA E OF LINE FM KASD-GISL1 AND COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING OPERATIONS AREA. ...SPC DAY 2 GENERAL TSTMS E OF LINE FM BOGL1-KBVE INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS E OF MS RIVER/OPERATIONS AREA. .SOUNDING... 12Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATES SATURATED LAPSE RATE TO 3400FT...DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB /8400FT/. WIND PROFILE W 5KT OFF SURFACE...SW 10KT TO 3800FT...SW 35-45KT TO 13.8KFT...50-70KT ABV 13.8KFT. .NEARBY GULF AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W KIPN 031235Z AUTO 17015KT 2SM BR CLR 25/24 A2992 KMYT 031240Z AUTO 21012KT 1/2SM BR BKN011 OVC016 25/24 A2992 KSPR 031220Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM FG VV000 23/23 A2989 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY -RA BR CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL SE LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 60NM. IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH FROPA OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS/SOUNDS BY 16Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT ADVANCING THROUGH SPOT LOCATION BY 18Z. VFR CIGS BKN040-070 AFTER 18Z. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 031300Z 0313/0413 00000KT 5SM BR BKN025 OVC080 FM031430 06004KT P6SM SCT025 BKN080 FM031600 10005KT P6SM SCT050 SCT250 FM040200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= KBVE 031300Z 0313/0413 22010KT 5SM -RA BR BKN005 OVC013 TEMPO 0313/0315 BKN013 OVC025 FM031500 20008KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040 FM032000 07005KT P6SM SCT025= KHSA 031300Z 0313/0413 00000KT 5SM BR BKN008 OVC070 FM031430 20005KT P6SM FEW011 BKN070 FM032000 VRB03KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250 FM040200 00000KT 6SM BR SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...MVFR CIG IMPRVG VFR CAVOK LATE PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNEDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR CAVOK. MODERATE S WIND. .RADAR... AT 755 AM CDT...KLIX INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH 6 STRIKES/5MIN MOVING NE 22KT ACROSS THE MS SOUND NEAR HORN ISLAND AND PETIT BOIS ISLAND. ESTIMATED GUSTS 28KT AND VSBY AOB 1SM +RA THIS CELL. SHOULD MOVE ASHORE NEAR MS/AL LINE AROUND 830 CDT. OVERALL COVERAGE IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN HIGH RETURNS BUT INCREASING IN 30DBZ OR LOWER RETURNS OVER THE N GLFMEX AND ADJACENT LA/MS COASTAL INLAND AREAS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.42 FT (+0.05 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.77 FT AT 1110 AM CDT) WYCM6 1.36 FT (+0.08 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 2.75 FT AT 240 PM CDT) .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........95 99 100 100 100 100 96 91 91 86 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 78 79 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 RH..............90 87 84 80 79 79 77 77 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..13 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIGS (FT-AGL)...O13 B13 B18 B25 B25 S25 S25 S40 S70 S70 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 14 14 14 10 10 10 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................ .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........77 73 73 73 58 58 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 76 74 73 72 72 RH..............81 89 97 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SW 7 SW 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 600 600 700 600 MIX HGT (M).....150 150 180 180 210 180 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 12 S 12 S 12 S 10 S 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.............LIGHT CHOP.......... .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 58 49 35 29 26 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 73 77 78 79 79 RH..............100 100 90 85 81 78 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 5 SW 5 E 5 NE 5 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....600 700 900 900 800 500 MIX HGT (M).....180 210 270 270 240 150 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 W 7 W 7 NW 9 N 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP............................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100503.DEEPW.04/LIX