FNUS73 KAPX 041355 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE NORTH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 955 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL MISS THE BURN SITE...WITH JUST SPRINKLES PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA. THEN...CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM READINGS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AT IGNITION. BUT LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS INTO THE EAST BY 4 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THROUGH 11 AM...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SPRINKLES THROUGH 11 AM. TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 4 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9400-9700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2200). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........61 61 61 60 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............66 67 68 68 RH..............33 30 29 29 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SE 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1600180021002200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........59 57 56 56 56 74 74 74 90 90 90 90 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............66 64 61 59 57 55 53 51 50 49 48 47 RH..............33 37 44 51 59 66 74 80 83 86 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S E E E E E SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 1 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71. MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........90 76 76 76 54 54 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............46 46 53 62 68 71 RH..............93 93 66 44 33 29 20 FT WIND......S 7 SW 7 W 10 W 11 SW 11 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 25 25 20 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100504.MEMOR.01/APX