FNUS73 KAPX 041256 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SILVER 3...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 856 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THIS RAIN WILL LARGELY MISS THE BURN SITE...WITH JUST SPRINKLES PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA. AFTER THAT...CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM READINGS. OVERALL WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ANTICIPATED. BUT LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO PREVAIL AFTER 2 PM AND WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS INTO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY AROUND 3 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS 11 AM. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 2 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6100-6500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2100). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........63 63 62 57 51 46 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 58 58 59 61 61 RH..............49 47 47 45 41 41 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW N 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......210019001700170017001400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47. MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........44 41 40 40 40 73 73 73 88 88 88 88 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............60 57 55 53 51 49 48 48 48 48 47 47 RH..............41 43 47 52 59 66 71 74 74 74 74 74 20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N NE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 SMOKE DISP......900 400 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100504.SILVE.01/APX