FNUS72 KJAX 041116
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KERR ISLAND...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES EACH DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS MAY NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-6200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....80.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........50     57     53     53
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............82     87     89     89
RH..............73     59     49     49
20 FT WIND......S 8    SW 14  SW 15  W 13
20 FT WIND GUST.12     21     23     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   4000   6200   6200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8    SW 17  SW 24  SW 24

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........57     71     71     67     65     65
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
RH..............53     66     77     83     90     96
20 FT WIND......W 9    NW 6   NE 3   E 2    NE 1   E 0
20 FT WIND GUST.14     9      4      3      2      1
MIX HGT (FT)....6000   1600   1600   900    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20   W 10   W 10   SW 7   SE 5   SE 5

$$
FORECASTER...HESS
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MASTERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100504.KERRI.01/JAX