FNUS74 KLIX 051616 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1116 AM CDT WED MAY 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A 1013MB DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM 50SE KAQQ TO LOWER SW GLFMEX...STNRY. A 1015MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 90.0W. FLAT 2MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TX COAST /1013MB/ TO N GULF HIGH...2MB GRADIENT N GULF HIGH TO FRONTAL ZONE..1014MB SPOT LOCATION. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... NONE. .WIND PROFILE... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...ENE 7KT 250FT...ENE 8KT 500FT... E 8KT 1KFT... E 8KT 2KFT...SE 6KT 3KFT...ESE 5KT 4KFT...ENE 6KT 5KFT...NNE 3KT MAX WIND...291/72KT 35.5KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 2KFT...SHALLOW TO 4KFT...ISOTHERMAL TO 7800FT. DRY ABV 877MB. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W METAR KBVE 051551Z AUTO 09005KT 8SM CLR 26/22 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP154 T02610217 TSNO METAR KGAO 051605Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT029 28/20 A2998 METAR KHSA 051554Z 29003KT 10SM CLR 28/16 A2997 METAR KIPN 051555Z AUTO 03006G14KT 10SM CLR 27/22 A2997 METAR KMYT 051600Z AUTO 02006KT 6SM HZ FEW016 OVC022 24/21 A2998 METAR KSPR 051600Z AUTO 33009KT 10SM CLR 25/19 A2997 METAR KMDJ 051555Z AUTO 10004KT 8SM BKN014 OVC019 23/21 A3000 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT035. NO SIG WX. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...MVFR BKN020 EXPANDING W AND S OVER OPS AREA...PREVAILING THRU 05/22Z. NO SIG WX. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 051600Z 0516/0616 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM051800 18005KT P6SM FEW035 FM060100 00000KT P6SM SKC TEMPO 0611/0613 2SM BR= KBVE 051600Z 0516/0616 06005KT P6SM FEW035 FM051800 15005KT P6SM SCT035 FM060100 16003KT P6SM FEW035 TEMPO 0610/0613 2SM BR= KHSA 051600Z 0516/0616 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM051800 18005KT P6SM FEW035 FM060100 00000KT P6SM SKC TEMPO 0609/0612 1SM BR= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...MVFR 3-4SM BR...LCL IFR BR BTWN 09Z-14Z CSTL TERMINALS...AFT 14Z BECMG CAVOK. WINDS LIGHT. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR CAVOK. LIGHT S WIND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...MVFR SCT-BKN025. 20% CHC SHRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MVFR BKN025-030 AM...VFR CAVOK PM. .RADAR... NO ECHOES. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED NEAR OPERATIONS AREA. TSTM CLUSTER N OF 28N/E OF 84W MOVG ENE. ISOLD SHRA DEVLPG FROM CLUSTER SW TO NEAR 27N/87W...PER SAT IMAGE. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.41 FT (0.00FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; -0.04FT FROM PHT) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 1.45 FT AT 1255 PM CDT WYCM6 1.45 FT (-0.06FT OFF FORECAST TRACE) PROJECTED HIGH TIDE 2.17 FT AT 557 PM CDT BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 75.7F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........41 41 38 38 38 19 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 73 74 74 74 74 74 RH..............93 93 93 90 90 90 90 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 1 1 0 0 0 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 CIGS (FT-AGL)...B20 B20 B20 B20 S20 S30 S32 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 13 13 13 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 6 6 6 6 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH..................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........19 0 0 0 7 20 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 73 72 72 70 69 RH..............87 90 97 93 100 100 20 FT WIND......W 0 W 1 SE 2 S 4 S 5 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 800 900 900 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....400 240 270 270 210 210 TRANSPORT WIND..E 8 SE 7 S 6 S 6 S 3 S 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................. .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........20 31 32 32 31 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 72 77 79 81 81 RH..............94 84 74 70 66 64 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 SE 2 SE 3 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 700 700 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....210 210 210 210 210 210 TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 S 3 SE 3 SE 3 S 6 S 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. && NAMROS TERICK KNEW 051520 MSY NAM ROS GUIDANCE 05/05/2010 1200UTC WKDY WED THU FRI SAT DATE /MAY 5 /MAY 6 /MAY 7 /MAY 8 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MXMN 86( 86) 65( 62) 84( 84) 62( 62) 86( 86) 67( 67) 84 TEMP 79 84 86 85 71 68 66 65 72 82 84 82 67 62 62 65 71 79 86 82 70 67 68 67 73 78 84 83 DWPT 62 59 60 63 68 67 66 65 66 59 63 65 65 61 62 65 69 71 70 69 69 67 67 67 70 71 71 69 HINX 81 84 86 86 71 68 66 65 72 82 85 83 67 62 62 65 71 81 91 86 70 67 68 67 73 81 89 87 CLDS CL CL S6 S6 CL S< S< S< CL CL CL CL CL B S< O1 O1 B2 S3 CL S< S< S< S< O1 B1 S2 B3 CLHT NA NA 58 58 NA 05 05 05 NA NA NA NA NA 30 05 15 15 17 29 NA 05 05 05 05 14 14 24 32 TMPO 02 02 02 00 02 02 06 05 02 02 02 09 TTSK CL CL PC PC CL PC PC PC CL CL CL CL CL MC PC OV OV OV PC CL PC PC PC PC OV MC PC OV VSBY P6 P6 P6 P6 P6 03 03 03 P6 P6 P6 P6 03 H 03 03 P6 P6 P6 P6 03 03 03 03 P6 P6 P6 P6 OBVS BR BR BR BR FG BR BR BR BR BR BR TYPF AF RF RF AF AF AF AF SF SF RF RF WDIR 33 08 21 16 18 19 20 19 17 14 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 22 21 19 20 21 21 27 33 35 03 WSPD 01 00 01 02 09 07 01 01 01 01 02 07 09 07 06 06 07 08 11 11 09 07 04 01 02 04 02 04 GUST 02 01 02 02 02 04 05 15 10 12 03 09 05 03 PP06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 PP12 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 TTPP 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 RQPF 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 TR TOTR 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 PTYP RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...-12NAM84.MSY 2MTP 81 87 88 84 71 68 67 66 74 84 87 81 67 62 63 65 72 81 88 82 70 68 68 68 74 81 86 83 SKTP 90 98 96 83 70 67 68 68 87 97 94 80 65 64 64 67 76 89 94 81 69 69 69 70 82 94 96 83 BLTP 76 83 86 86 74 73 73 71 70 80 84 84 71 71 70 69 70 75 85 85 75 74 73 72 70 76 83 84 SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS: WKDY WED THU FRI SAT DATE /MAY 5 /MAY 6 /MAY 7 /MAY 8 HOUR 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 RINX 00169177171153 00 00 00 00 00239197225 00 00198176187169184190192189179179 76 75 67 SVR% 59 61 RIHL 151158 06 07 07 04 .XXIN RICG 72 75 19 23 21 18 KNTS RITN E3 E4 EFSCL R3SG 135139 MPH WMB# WMBS NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL LINX 02 01 00 00 -1 04 06 06 07 04 01 00 01 10 05 03 02 -1 -5 -4 00 00 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 SHOW 10 03 00 00 00 05 05 07 08 09 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 05 03 03 03 02 02 01 01 00 -4 SWET 04 15 19 20 18 06 06 03 03 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 21 06 11 16 16 15 15 14 16 17 19 33 XX0 KINX 00 04 02 00 00 03 06 11 16 26 TOTL 33 43 47 47 46 41 41 38 35 34 30 28 27 28 27 26 26 26 41 43 43 44 45 45 47 47 48 53 CAPE 00 01 18 22 41 00 00 00 00 00 10 25 02 00 00 04 23114162163 64 33 49 52 71125213222 0J/KG PWAT 07 08 09 09 10 08 08 07 06 07 08 08 08 06 06 07 07 08 12 12 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 X.XIN LCLH 12 44 54 49 08 01 01 01 01 29 49 36 05 01 01 01 01 06 29 32 03 01 01 01 02 24 29 00FT LFCL 24 04 03 03 0545713971404 67 19 04 04 104631412287 35 01 01 03 08 88234235 08 03 01 01 BULK 18 95488478 79 55103218251119154130 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 C/S HLCY -52-14 19 39 26 18 27 26 08 -4 15 41 44 62 84111117 98 67 39 81 88 84 63 22 23 33 24 M2/S2 ENHI 00 01 01 00 01 00 00 01 06 06 03 02 02 02 02 01 02 04 03 X.X TINX 02 02 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 02 03 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 03 02 02 03 03 03 04 05 05 AVIL 66 64 64 64 63 63 62 61 61 64 67 67 66 66 65 64 64 64 64 65 66 66 64 63 62 62 62 63 KG/M2 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100505.DEEPW.07/LIX