FNUS72 KMLB 051000
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DISNEY WILDERNESS PRESERVE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EDT WED MAY 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES MID-LATE IN THE DAY.
A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR INLAND...REMAINING EAST
OF THE BURN AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON LIGHTNING
STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WHEN ITS WEST COAST COUNTERPART COLLIDES WITH
IT BY EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

DEPENDING ON RAINFALL NEAR THE BURN AREA LATER TODAY...SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE BURN
AREA. SKIES WILL THIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    3600-4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....40.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM RW  RW
TEMP............79  81  83  84  86  86  86  86  84  82  80  79
RH..............74  69  64  62  56  56  57  57  59  63  67  72
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   8   8   8   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.    10  10  10              10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING CLOUDINESS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING AND 300 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............9.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 8 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....63.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...NEIL CLINEMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100505.DISNE.01/MLB