FNUS72 KJAX 070822
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ECSF CARRAWAY...FLORIDA DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL DOMINATE AS A
WARM AND INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SOME ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RETURN
TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....58.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........8      8      15     22     22
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............70     80     86     90     90
RH..............89     62     49     41     40
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 3    W 6    SW 8   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.3      5      9      12     14
MIX HGT (FT)....1600   1600   4200   6200   6200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8    W 8    W 8    W 12   W 12

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........22     22     22     21     20     20
WEATHER COV.....                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP............87     82     77     74     72     70
RH..............45     56     68     76     83     90
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 7   SW 5   SW 5   SW 3   W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.14     11     7      7      4      4
MIX HGT (FT)....5200   1500   1500   400    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13  SW 14  SW 14  W 8    W 6    W 6

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....63.

$$
FORECASTER...HESS
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CROSBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100506.ECSFC.01/JAX